A team gets beat by 44 points in the team's first true test on the season. Yes, I know Tech beat Texas at home, but being at home, Texas Tech is going to be favored. This road game at Oklahoma was their first true road test, and they were waxed—yet voters still think they are better then Utah.
This does not make sense, because while Utah is most likely not going to make the BCS title game, stranger things have happened. Plus Utah wants to finish as high as they can in the polls to help recruiting and get new fans.
Then we have Penn State, who is ranked sixth in both human polls ahead of Utah. This makes even less sense then Texas Tech. Below are results between Utah and Penn State with the final score, current record, and the ranking at the time.
| Utah | Penn State |
| @ Michigan 25-23 Current Record 3-9 | Coastal Carolina 66-10 Current Record 6-6 |
| UNLV 42-21 Current Record 5-7 | Oregon State 45-14 Current Record 8-3 |
| @ Utah State 58-10 Current Record 3-8 | @ Syracuse
|
| Weber State 37-21 Current Record 9-3 | Temple 45-3 Current Record 4-7 |
| Oregon State 31-28 Current Record 8-3 | No. 22 Illinois 38-24 Current Record 5-7 |
| @ Wyoming 40-7 Current Record 4-8 | @ Purdue 20-6 Current Record 4-8 |
| Colorado State 49-16 Current Record 6-6 | @ Wisconsin 48-7 Current Record 7-5 |
| @ New Mexico 13-10 Current Record 4-8 | Michigan 46-17 Current Record 3-9 |
| No. 12 TCU 13-10 Current Record 10-2 | @ No. 9 Ohio State 13-6 Current Record 10-2 |
| @ San Diego State 63-14 Current Record 2-10 | @ Iowa 24-23 Current Record 8-4 |
| @ Air Force 30-23 Current Record 8-4 | Indiana 34-7Current Record 3-9 |
| No. 14 BYU W 48-24 Current Record 10-2 | No. 15 Michigan State 49-18 Current Record 9-3 |
As you can see each school played a I-AA team, and the ranked opponents are pretty similar. Well, Illinois was overrated at the time, but Michigan State is similar to BYU, TCU is similar to Ohio State, and Air Force is similar to Wisconsin.
The overall record of their opponents is Utah 72-70 and Penn State 70-71. Not much of a difference except that Penn State lost to an unranked Iowa. It'd be better if the loss was to Ohio State, who is ranked in the top 15 then. But to an unranked team—yes, it was a road game, but it was a loss.
They are very close in their opponents' record, and the Big Ten might be slightly better in overall depth. The top four teams in each league favor the Mountain West, and with all things so equal, an unbeaten team should be ahead of a one-loss team.
The national media is in love with the tradition of Penn State and the Big Ten because they are an automatic qualifier conference for the BCS and gives the benefit of the doubt to those schools.
The reality is that both teams are good, but an undefeated team should trump a one-loss team, because all the Big Ten honks do not want to admit that they are closer to the level of play of the Mountain West then they are to the SEC or Big 12.
My next post will go over the same scenario as USC as to why they are ranked higher.
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about 1 month ago
Excellent! This was great analysis and I agree for sure. I think that the main reason that human polls have placed Penn State above Utah is also the point differential in their two common opponents, Michigan and Oregon State. I don't agree with this but it is what it is.
from about 1 month ago
Point difference is a key, but honestly how man voters go back and look at that stuff. I still think this undefeated team should be higher in the human polls. That Iowa team is about the same level as Air Force.
from about 1 month ago
Iowa would destroy Air Force! Go back to your pansy schedule Jeremy! You can't be this delusional! The same Air Force team who almost lost to ARMY! Get a life!
from about 1 month ago
Isaac besides Iowa being in the Little 11 how sure are you that Iowa would beat Air Force.
about 1 month ago
If you take a look at the two common opponents both teams have played, Michigan and Oregon State, with Oregon State being a home game for both teams, Penn State crushed both of them while Utah squeaked by both of them. Remember, Oregon State's only crushing defeat came at Penn State.
If Utah had played Penn State's schedule, I can't envision how Utah wins at Ohio state on a night game with a healthy Beanie Wells. I also see them losing to Iowa as well, who may be the best four loss team in the nation. And Michigan State. But I do see them winning at Wisconsin and beating Illinois.
If Penn State played Utah's schedule, they would easily be undefeated. We breezed through all of our schedule except two games, at Ohio State and at Iowa. All of the other games we handidly defeated our opponents, with many of our starters resting in the second half. Looks like you had five close games, Oregon State, Michigan (ha!), New Mexico (joke), TCU and Air Force.
When you decide on which team to rank higher, you have to not only look at the columns of wins and losses but also the point differential of games, how many close games you played, how each fared with common opponents, and this one's more subjective, but the hypothetical talent on each team and their hypothetical record if they played the other's schedule. In my opinion, the Nittany Lions are clearly a better and more deserving team than the Utes.
If they played head to head, Penn State would crush Utah in Beaver Stadium and win by 10 away.
about 1 month ago
My points are well stated in dk's post. When we look at opponent's season records, we can't just simply look at the numbers. Comparing opponent's opponents, we can see a huge difference there. While the Utes's opponent play teams from MWC, the Lion's opponent play traditional powerhouses such as Ohio state and Wisconsin (not to mention the Spartans which finished 9-3).
The win over BYU is closer than the score indicated. If not for Max Hall's 5 interceptions (several of which resulted in TD by the Utes), we wouldn't be discussing this right now. FIVE interceptions. When does Penn State ever play an opponent whose quarterback throws for FIVE interceptions in one game? Imagine Penn State were playing BYU, at home, on a day Max Hall threw for five interceptions (all of which are on BYU side of the field, even include the fumble lost), would Lion's score break 90?
from about 1 month ago
T give the Ute defense credit for forcing those picks, and having 7 passes knocked down and a few sacks. Before that game Max Hall had 8 on the year.
from about 1 month ago
I'm sure all-big ten selection Scirrotto Maybin Bowman Odrick and Sargeant will get the job done, too, if not better. Here are some additional stats: penn state is ranked 15th in total offense while utah is ranked 33rd, penn state is ranked 4th in total defense while utah is ranked 18th. For the difference in strength of schedule, I think it's pretty clear which team is better.
about 1 month ago
Really? Squeaking by OrSU and Michigan?
Let's try the common sense test. Who would win, Penn State or Utah?
about 1 month ago
Really? Squeaking by OrSU and Michigan?
Let's try the common sense test. Who would win, Penn State or Utah?
from about 1 month ago
This guy just doesn't get it. Penn State is one of the best teams in the Nation, and they play good teams. Utah is such a pretender. If Penn State played halfway decent against Iowa, they would be in the NC right now, and they still have a slight chance to get it. Jeremy is just delusional, Penn State would beat Utah by 50 at home and by 30 on the road.
about 1 month ago
Hah! You have to be kidding me! The MWC is like the WAC and the MAC, they don't deserve it. Beating Michigan 25-23 was real impressive for your Utes, as we beat them by 30. Same goes for Oregon State, who you should have lost to, who we beat by 31. Don't get ridiculous. First of all, Iowa should be ranked. They lost all four of their games by a combined of 12 points. Second, we had our worst performance of the year against them. We didn't come to play, it was cold, extremely windy, and we didn't have portable heaters, but they did. I guarantee you any BCS conference one loss team could demolish Utah. LSU last year had two losses and won the NC. Have Utah join a major conference! Then we'll consider you, even though you'll be 2-10.
Your schedule is almost as much of a pansy schedule as Notre Dame's! Weber State, Utah State, Wyoming, UNLV, Colorado State, New Mexico, and San Diego State are all scrub teams, and would fit in with our warm-up games. Get real man! Air Force and BYU couldn't beat any decent team, but wait...THEY DON'T PLAY ANY!!! TCU is the only halfway decent team on your schedule, other than Oregon State, and you probably should have lost that game too!
Take lessons from Hawaii, man! You'll get demolished and then you'll look stupid, while PSU destroys USC or Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. UTAH SUCKS!!! OVERRATED!!!
from about 1 month ago
wow issac. Ya I guess Utah and Boise State didnt deserve it when they beat Oklahoma and Pittsburgh respectively in their two BCS games. Dude stop just using Hawaii as what is going to happen. I know its hard for you to accept that there is as many ranked teams in the MWC as in your precious Big Ten. But get over it and honestly it would be a close game. Michgan only stayed close to Utah because Utah played atrocious against them similar to how PSU played against Iowa. Get over the fact PSU blew their chance to go to the NC and dont attack other teams because yours CHOKED.
from about 1 month ago
Isaac
What about the crap Penn State played
x-Illinois 5-7
x-Purdue 4-8
x-Michigan 3-9
x-Indiana 3-9
Temple 4-7
Syracuse 3-8
Coastal Carolina who is in the I-A
Real tough schedule there, know what your facts about who has a 'good' or 'bad' schedule. Utah beat 5 teams with at least a .500 record 6 if you count Weber State who is one of the better I-AA and in the playoffs while Penn State beat 4 teams with a winning record, so your schedule argument is flawed and inaccurate.
How about you take lessons from Utah, not Hawaii who has as many BCS bowl wins as you do since the 2004,
from about 1 month ago
Pitt sucked that year. Andrew, stick to hockey. Jeremy, um...at least those are decent teams. You play losing teams who lose to awful teams. Illinois loses to teams like Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State, who are all good. The "Little 11" is much better than the BS MWC that YOU CALL a conference. Also, playing like crap against Michigan doesn't mean it should be close. MICHIGAN IS 3-9!!! PLAYING LIKE CRAP AGAINST THEM MEANS YOU SHOULD STILL CRUSH THEM!!! WE PLAYED LIKE CRAP AGAINST THEM AND CRUSHED THEM!!! IOWA IS 8-4!!! BIG DIFFERENCE THERE!!! Anyway, Utah would go 2-10, but you just keep believing that you're good and play pansy teams. The MWC doesn't even deserve to be a conference because frankly, it sucks. Have fun playing your pansies!
about 1 month ago
I am a Penn State fan, and I could easily argue that if Penn State and Utah played head to head that the Nittany Lions would win (which is how the pollsters should compare teams in rankings). However I believe that an undefeated team should have a right to play for the national championship. At this point it doesn't matter what an individual poll has, as long as the BCS ranking is right.
from about 1 month ago
I have watched a few Utah games this year (vs Michigan, TCU, and another game or two at some point). Their offense needs to step it up against whoever they play in the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl. That's where I guess they'd be going.
about 1 month ago
First off...Isaac, did you forget to take your medication this morning? How many times must I tell you that you have to take your pills 3 times a day. RELAX MAN!!!!
Secondly...If you are complaining that Utah should be ahead of Texas Tech and Penn State, then you should be saying the same thing about Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and USC.
Texas - Lost to Texas Tech
Oklahoma - Lost to Texas
Florida - Lost to Ole Miss
USC - Lost to Oregon State
If you are going to discriminate against 2 one-loss teams, then you should discriminate against them all.
about 1 month ago
Look, Utah beat PItt when Pitt came through a VERY WEAK Big East Conference with four losses. They didn't deserve to be in a BCS bowl game, but because of the current rules where every major conference champion gets to go to a BCS bowl game, the went. And got killed. It would be like you playing the Big East champion of this year, perhaps Cincinnati. We would expect you to win that game, should we not?
So your whole conference stands on one game, Boise St./Oklahoma. Boise St. played out of their minds that game, and there is a reason why it is considered to be one of the best BCS bowl games of all time. Boise St was a huge underdog and should have lost. The one out of ten chance actually came true. (I'll bet my money on Oklahoma winning a hypothetical rematch, by the way).
You will make a BCS bowl, but you will be crushed if you play USC/OK/TExas/FLa/Alabama. You guys have a chance with Cinci/Ga. Tech. You guys better hope that you play an ACC or a Big East team.
BTW Kevin, did you believe that Hawaii should have made the nat'l championship last year in place of a two loss LSU?
from about 1 month ago
DK, Utah probably would lose to Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida, but anyone else in the country Utah has a very good chance. The way things are looking Utah probably will play the loser of the SEC title game in the Sugar, and what will you say if Utah wins. Well, probably the same thing they said with Boise it was a one time win Utah was pumped and played over their head. No matter what Utah will never get respect even if they do win their BCS game.
about 1 month ago
This post is really a love letter to the BCS system. It's clear that the human polls are slightly prejudiced in favor of Penn State. Howvever the computer elements in the BCS points system corrected for this and placed Utah 6th and Penn State 8th.
My own point system, which I developed as a check on the BCS point system has Utah with 3 points and Penn State with 1 point. Since Utah is undefeated and Penn State has one loss, I would also place Utah well ahead of Penn State in any beauty contest.
Utah has no apologies to make to anyone. They beat two top 20 teams this year TCU, which was ranked 11th when they played and BYU, which was ranked 17th when they played.
For a full explanation of my ranking system, see here:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/76587-a-system-for-judging-the-bcs-beauty-contest
about 1 month ago
The real questions should be, "why isn't Penn State ranked in the top four where they belong?" Comparing them to an over-rated Utah team that is only in the top twenty because of its record is lame.
from about 1 month ago
Overrated?? Please
from about 1 month ago
The only reason Utah, Boise State or Ball State are ranked in the top twenty is because they are undefeated. Utah is obviously flawed, so are the other two. They would be a double digit underdog against any BCS team ranked in the top 15, for good reason.
from about 1 month ago
No way Jay. Such Bias and you do not see good teams when they are there. Utah beat 2 teams ranked in the BCS top 15. So what if they are not from BCS leagues, by your logic Cincinnati would be at least a 10 point favorite over Utah. Jay you are out of your mind.
from about 1 month ago
What bias. Who have they played? TCU, Oregon State and BYU, that's it. TCU and BYU are ranked in the top fifteen (though they should not be) but they haven't beaten anyone. Much like Utah, their ten win records are the only reason they are highly ranked. Oregon State is a solid team and easily their best win (at home no less) but the Beavers win over USC is a bit of a fluke. They lost to Stanford and were blown out by Penn State. They simply do not have the body of work of any top ten team. They are solid in most aspects of the game but several teams ranked below them are much better in most aspects and have played tougher schedules and have much better wins. They simply do not belong. And you do realize that Cincinnati is not ranked in the top fifteen anywhere? There is a pretty clear dichotomy in terms of quality between the top fifteen BCS teams and the remaining non-BCS teams (Utah, BYU, TCU, Ball State and Boise State) and lower ranked teams. Not one of the non-BCS teams belongs in the top ten over Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma State or Missouri.
about 1 month ago
you know, Jeremy, I'd probably be rooting for Utah in that matchup-i hate the SEC and have nothing against the WAC conference. But let's face reality, Utah is going to lose-by double digits. Besides Oregon State, which team did Utah beat whose team beat a major team in one of the BCS conferences? TCU played OKlahoma but they got killed that game. BYU beat who? Washington, the worst team in Div I-A football on a missed extra point? Come on. I have nothing against Utah, but talent wise, there are twenty or so teams that are better than you.
from about 1 month ago
They only get 4 chances a year and they are not going to play all BCS league teams. I think BYU and TCU need respect since they were ranked in the BCS and Utah beat them.
from about 1 month ago
again, the only reason BYU and TCU are ranked is because their easy schedule. Utah will not get respect by beating teams like that. Beat a good team from SEC/BIG12/BIG10 and earn that respect
about 1 month ago
Oh yea, I just want to say, Jeremy, I'll give respect to Utah if they beat Alabama.
about 1 month ago
And be fair, Utah tried to schedule a tough BCS matchup against Michigan, how can you foresee that they would have their worst season in history?
about 1 month ago
I am in a no win situation, I have seen every Ute game know how good they are and how bad. Their offense can be great but is inconsistent too often. Their defense is AMAZING and the offense steps up in clutch situations.
I HOPE that Penn State plays Oregon State so the Beavers can whack Penn State and watch Utah beat their BCS opponent.
about 1 month ago
Taking a loot at Utah's past five years of recruiting on Rivals.com (the makeup of the current football program), I see that you guys only attracted no five star and four four star football players to Utah. I'm not even going to count how many Penn State has had, but I can think of at least 5 five star recruits and I'm guessing at least 30 four star recruits. Now you can say that Rivals is not a very good indicator of how good a football player will become, and your right. Many times, highly regarded players will bust (Anthony Morelli, for ex). But you look at the teams that have routinely signed top classes (USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Florida) and these are all elite programs today. So Rivals is a good indicator of how good teams will become based on the overall class (save Notre Dame perhaps)
The fact of the matter is, Penn State has so much more athletes on this team than you guys. The markup of your team is a bunch of major college program rejects, players who have dreamed of playing for programs like USC, Texas, Penn State but didnt have the ahtleticism, height, speed to receive a scholarship offer. So they went to Utah.
We're a disciplined team either. Please do not bring up the hooligans that were kicked off the team early this year. We have committed the fewest penalties in the Big Ten this year and we're a well coached team. This is evident in the number of blowouts and how consistent we've been throughout the year.
So Penn State has more athletes, and although I don't know how good Utah's coaching is, I doubt it is as well coached as Penn State's. So we have more talent and probably more discipline than you guys. How exactly are you trying to argue that Utah is a better team than Penn State, Jeremy and all you Utah folks?
about 1 month ago
Busy Thread! That's why I hate the off season. Nothing to talk about.
about 1 month ago
Ok, let me try to be the voice of reason.
As someone who lives in NM and goes to the Lobo games, I have to say that Utah looked very vulnerable. But, here is how you get respect...Go to the Sugar bowl and beat Alabama (who going to lose to Fl in the SEC championship game). Then, next year, schedule all your non-conference games against BCS conference teams (including teams like Iowa, Texas A&M, Missouri, etc.) go undefeated again, go to another BCS bowl and win. Then do that for a couple more years, and you get a shot at the title game. Patience, being in a mid major conference does hurt you, but it can be overcome.
As for Penn State, I am a PSU fan, but have to say that they deserve the Rose Bowl. They had a meltdown against an Iowa team that, even though I believe are better than their record, I thought would get wupped by PSU by something like 49-14. And PSU have beat Purdue by 50 pts easy. Penn State has looked vulnerable too.
If they played each other (pure speculation since PSU is locked into the Rose bowl against USC or Oregon State), I think either team could win depending on which Jeckyl and Hyde showed up (for both teams). If the 'spread HD' showed up for PSU, Utah would have to hope they could score on every possession, because PSU would. If PSU's 'struggling QB' and 'frozen kicker' showed up, Utah could pull off the win. (to be continued)
about 1 month ago
(continued from above)
I both hope and fear for Penn State if they get USC in the Rose Bowl. I think they could beat USC, but if the offense doesn't show up, it will be years before the Big Ten gets any bowl respect. Oregon State on the other hand already knows what a rematch with PSU will bring since PSU trounced them earlier in the year.
Same for Utah, they should both hope and fear if they get Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The only way for Utah to get respect is to beat Alabama, but it will not be easy. And if they lose big, it will hurt the respect built for the MWC for years to come. If they get (and beat) Cincinnati, everyone will say that because Cincinnati was not a top team, Utah doesn't deserve the respect.
about 1 month ago
TCU is similar to Ohio State in which way?
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