The problem with the majority of college football polls is that they are comparing apples to oranges. Voters are forced to pick one over the other, even though there is no empirical, head-to-head way to compare the two.
Let’s imagine that the Big 12 South is a barrel of apples, and the SEC East is a barrel of oranges.
So, amongst the barrel of apples there are three that are all equally sweet, one that is just a little more tart than the first three, and two that might be useful as pie filling at best.
In the barrel of oranges, there is one that is extremely sweet, another almost as sweet, and four that are barely worth squeezing.
Which is better, one of the three sweetest apples, the sweetest orange, or an entirely different fruit altogether, like a California grape?
I think each of us would have our own favorite. Do we even know if the worst orange is better that one of the best apples?
We don’t really.
So how could we compare the shiny apples of the Big 12 to the ripe oranges of the SEC?
One way would be for the teams to play each other, head-to-head. Another way would be if teams in the two conferences played each other, and the outcome of those games could be used as the common denominator.
Unfortunately, there was only one such game this year, a 52-10 beat-down of the Arkansas Razorbacks when they visited the Texas Longhorns. What did that tell us?
Well, nothing really.
The week before the inter-conference beat-down, the Alabama Crimson Tide visited Arkansas and won 49-14, and the week after the Florida Gators visited Arkansas and left with a 38-7 win.
Factor in home field advantage, and this basically tells us that Arkansas is not very good, and Texas, Alabama, and Florida are all pretty good.
There is no way to convincingly determine which team is the best based on this one inter-conference meeting.
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about 1 month ago
Mark Twain said "if you buy a basket of apples, it is helpful to know that the bottom half is rotten."
about 1 month ago
Just for the sake of being a complete homer, potatoes are pretty good too!
about 1 month ago
Is there such a thing as a blue potato? Also, what produce comes from Utah? I couldn't think of anything.
about 1 month ago
I keep imagining new inter-conference rivalries or renewing old rivalries based on geographic borders or proximity. Imagine a yearly LSU-OU or LSU-Texas A&M rivalry. What about Ohio State versus Kentucky or West Virginia every year? When was the last time LSU played Texas A&M, 1995? Their campuses are only 300 miles apart. It's 550 miles between the Gators and Volunteers every year, so why not? Even Hawaii traveled to Gainesville, FL this year.
about 1 month ago
Good work. I really like where you are going with this Zepto.
There is a problem with it that you need to address. The BCS conferences themselves are still "too big" of a league, with 60 teams vrs 30 or so in the normal type of pro league that resolves championships the normal way via a playoff. The problem with 60 teams is there is still a large underclass of permanent have nots ie Syracuse, Navy, Iowa State, Northwestern etc. Many non-BCS teams are consistently better teams than many BCS conf teams. With a limited number of OOC games, it's not going to be fair to a team that happens to draw a difficult schedule, say you're Florida and you draw VTech, Texas and OSU one year, while Georgia draws Tex AM, NC State and Purdue.
There should be some kind of workaround, but it sounds like it might be tough.
I am trying to develop a point bases system to judge the quality of each contending teams wins and losses. You might want to check it out.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/76587-a-system-for-judging-the-bcs-beauty-contest
about 1 month ago
Oh also, people always brush off the non-BCS conferences, but I don't think they are going to appreciate not being allowed to schedule any BCS conf teams anymore. This will make their hill to climb into a BCS bowl that much harder.
There are politics you have to be aware of when making these proposals. If you don't address them then you are just engaging in fantasy. This is the problem I have with the 4 and 8 team playoff proposals. They don't address the underlying politics of the sport. When you point them out to people, they never have a logical response. They just want a playoff and go into denial about the larger effects that a playoff will have.
about 1 month ago
With most teams having 4 out of conference games, requiring each BCS conference team to play at least one team from another BCS conference shouldn't be difficult. Then, we could also require that each BCS team plays at least one mid-major/independent. Mid-majors/independents would also need to schedule at least one game against a team from another mid-major/independent team. That still leaves two games for patsies.
Another thought that I had was if the ranking system itself deducted points if a team did not play at least one out of conference BCS team. So, Texas Tech would receive a deduction this year. This would give teams an incentive to schedule at least one OOC BCS team.
I truly believe that the cumulative effect of requiring at least one OOC BCS game and requiring conferences to play at least two games against each of the other BCS conferences would exponentially improve the Colley Matrix ranking system and other ranking systems used by the BCS. These games are where the conferences "intersect", and if there is insufficient intersections, there is no basis for comparison. Again, we are comparing apples and oranges until the conferences play head to head.
We could also use the bowl game results since almost all of those games are between team from different conferences. What is OSU's bowl record against SEC teams again?
from about 1 month ago
Texas Tech already is feeling the penalty. They are ranked below Oklahoma and Texas in all 3 BCS components.
And, I cannot think of a team that does not already play "at least one mid-major/independent."
The scheduling of more than 1 FCS school is probably what needs to stop. Institute a cap here instead of requirements elsewhere.
about 1 month ago
Texas throttles Arkansas and we have apples and oranges. Add a 10 point victory by LSU over Kansas and we have...? We don't gain much more.
I wrote more but it is late and I think it sounded mean, so I deleted it. Hope you have a happy Thanksgiving.
about 1 month ago
That one extra game may not in itself make a huge difference. However, imagine the cumulative effect, Big 12 vs. Big 10, SEC vs. PAC-10, etc. I think many teams are already striving for this but there is not a concerted effort.
Also, if you required 1 BCS OOC game, 1 mid-major/independent, then for most schools that would only leave 2 games left to schedule, so the cap would automatically be 2. In actually, I think the average team would play only 1 FCS team anyway. Don't forget Michigan/App State. That matchup is priceless. FCS schools should get a shot at taking down one of the big boys and earn a payday to help their program. So, in the end the easiest possible OOC schedule would have 1 BCS opponent, 1 mid-major/independent, and 2 FCS. That is still significantly more challenging that Texas Tech's OOC schedule this year. In contrast, Florida's OOC schedule was against 2 BCS opponents, 1 mid-major, and 1 FCS.
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