BCS Bowl Projections: How Boise State Can Still Reach a BCS Bowl

Andrew Van WingerdenContributor IINovember 28, 2011

BOISE, ID - NOVEMBER 26: Kellen Moore #11 of the Boise State Broncos applauds a touchdown against the Wyoming Cowboys at Bronco Stadium on November 26, 2011 in Boise, Idaho.  (Photo by Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images)
Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images

After Boise State's loss to TCU a few weeks ago, the Broncos seemed to be out of luck in terms of reaching a BCS bowl game.  

Now, Bronco fans have some hope once again. 

With the latest BCS poll, most BCS bowl games seem pretty set. As I see it, Alabama will face LSU for the national title, Oregon will take on Wisconsin for the Rose Bowl, Virginia Tech will get the Orange Bowl against whoever comes out on top of the Big East, and Oklahoma State will go against Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.

This leaves the Sugar Bowl up for grabs, as normally an SEC team would face an at-large team. However, with LSU and Alabama likely playing for the national championship, two at-large bids will get the Sugar Bowl.

If Houston can finish off Southern Miss in the C-USA championship, the Cougars will be a virtual lock for this game. 

A lot of projections have Michigan taking on Houston here, but in order for Michigan to get in, they would have to finish in the top 14 in the BCS standings. The Wolverines currently sit at 16th and don't have any games left, so they are going to need some help from the polls.

If Michigan can't get in, the door will be open for Boise State, Oklahoma or Kansas State.

The Broncos are currently ranked seventh in the latest BCS standings and should have no trouble finishing the season with a win over New Mexico. This will put them in good shape as an at-large team to make the Sugar Bowl.  

Boise State's case would be even stronger if Oklahoma State takes care of Oklahoma next week, and then that would realistically leave just Kansas State. I believe the Broncos would be the more attractive option here and would get the nod to play in the Sugar Bowl.

If Houston loses against Southern Miss, Boise's chances will be even greater, and then they would probably take on Kansas State, which was ranked No. 11 in the latest BCS rankings.

So there is still a chance for Boise State, and I really think it is a good possibility. A game against Houston may not be ideal, but the Sugar Bowl it is a heck of a lot better than playing the Las Vegas Bowl or Poinsettia Bowl.