I went a pretty average 11-5 this week, but I'm 2-0 so far this week thanks to the Falcons and Cowboys (okay, those were easy picks) and hope to continue that success into Sunday.
Last week's record: 11-5
2011 season record: 142-68 (67.6%)
Bills over Dolphins — The Dolphins obliterated the Bills at home about a month ago, but they may be in disarray after the firing of Tony Sparano and I like Buffalo to even the season series at home.
Bears over Seahawks — Chicago is favored at home, but this could easily be considered an upset. I think a good Bears defense plays angry after last week's loss to the Broncos and shuts down Seattle enough to win this one.
Titans over Colts — This could easily be the game the Colts win this season at home against a mediocre Titans squad, but how can you ever justify picking an 0-13 team?
Packers over Chiefs — It doesn't matter who starts for the Chiefs—the Packers are going to win this one by 30 even if they sit their starters at halftime.
Bengals over Rams — Injuries are killing the Rams this year, and I don't see any way week-old signing Kellen Clemens leads them to victory in place of Sam Bradford.
Saints over Vikings — Even if Adrian Peterson plays, I don't see the Vikings being able to keep up with the Saints offensively and winning this one.
Giants over Redskins — The Giants are down a few pass rushers, but Jason Pierre-Paul is active and the Redskins are starting some seriously lacking tackles. It could get ugly for Rex Grossman and the Redskins in this one.
Texans over Panthers — I had been downgrading the Texans in recent weeks due to being down to rookie fifth-rounder T. J. Yates at quarterback, but they are still playing well and I'll take them at home here.
Lions over Raiders — In what could amount to the most penalized game of all time, I'm going against my usual method of picking the west coast team at home. Carson Palmer is trying to force too many things right now and may continue to do so if the Lions build a good lead.
Patriots over Broncos — I don't care how bad the Patriots' defense is—there is no excuse for losing to Tim Tebow here. I will go into media blackout for the next month if they do.
Eagles over Jets — Philadelphia has always been better than their record and they showed it last week. This is a tough game to pick, but I'll take the Eagles at home.
Cardinals over Browns — You can't justify picking the Seneca Wallace-led Browns with no running game. Arizona has pulled out some good wins lately and should win again here.
Ravens over Chargers — San Diego has probably disappointed me more times than anyone over the past few seasons, but I like them this week. I don't know if Baltimore can win a shootout in a cross-country game.
Steelers over 49ers* — For now, I'm picking the Steelers. If I find out Ben Roethlisberger isn't starting Monday, however, then I'm probably switching to San Francisco.
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Chris J. Nelson majored in journalism at Georgia State University and currently works for Turner Sports in Atlanta. He operates his own Miami Dolphins website, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and he can be followed on Twitter here.
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