Liver's Week 3 NFL Picks: Cowboys to Cover Against the Bears

O.J. Simpson is in court and the Cowboys just signed a convict. And so the year 1994 went...

At least Tank Johnson is headed for a city where guns are not only legal but encouraged.

In any event, the year just gets more and more depressing for me. But the Cowboys are 2-0—why, you ask, is the Liver so crestfallen?  

No, it's not the hangover.

Believe it or not, the Liver occasionally has flashes of a heart.

It’s funny how life works when you get older. Some people are crazy enough to want to get married and have a family. Some of those people are the Liver's old flames.

It's easy to get depressed when you hear the news that an ex is getting hitched—not because you want to marry her yourself, but because you feel like you’re losing something.

Maybe a few of you guys out there know what I’m talking about. You start to wonder what your life might have been like had you been “that type of guy”—wife, kids a, house...all the shit that makes me cringe while I secretly wonder about it.

Then you realize you’d be bored to tears after six months—and eyeing your wife’s hot friends.

Some of us just weren’t meant to settle down. Some of us are too obsessed with our dreams to make room for anyone else. 

Those of you who haven’t figured it out yet—believe me, you will. 

But anyway. Just in case you thought the Liver had turned into Dear fucking Abby...here’s our lineup for Week Three.

Excuse me while I go to my favorite watering whole and have drunken sex with a local bar slut...followed up by a double-feature of North Dallas Forty and Any Given Sunday.

That usually gets me out of these funks. 

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. The Liver’s picks are to cover the spread, not straight-up winners. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kanye West, Roger Goodell, Bill Beliprick, and Travis Henry’s nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 5-10-1

2007 record against the spread: 10-19-3

Sunday, September 23 

Arizona (+8) at Baltimore

Steve McNair will be back at QB for Baltimore. Is that such a good thing? Ever since the Colts playoff game, it seems like he’s aged 20 years. Arizona is coming off a big win over the Seahawks. Baltimore needs to keep pace with the Steelers in their division. As for Matt “Flower in the mouth” Leinart—your running back AND head coach just called you out over your focus and game prep. Too busy wanting to be a star? You’re not in L.A. anymore. Real QBs in the NFL never have their leadership skills questioned.

Pick: Arizona 

San Diego at Green Bay (+4 ½)

The Chargers looked like they never got off the bus last Sunday night. Norv Turner must have wanted to channel his inner Tony D’Amato after the Patriots game. “Thirty years in football. I never seen something that stinks like this!” LT hasn’t had a breakout game yet—and will be hard-pressed to so against a surprisingly stout Packers defense.

Pick: Green Bay 

Indianapolis at Houston (+6)

Houston has been a pleasant surprise so far, but Matt Schaub will be without favorite target Andre Johnson. The Houston defense has been steadily improving, and might be able to frustrate the Colts early. 

Pick: Indy 

Minnesota (+2 ½) at Kansas City

This could be the worst game any of us will ever NOT see. Kelly Holcomb might start in place of an injured Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson’s QB rating? Dead last in the NFL at 40.0. I hear if you throw the ball and just hit the field you get a 35.0. Damon Huard’s rating is 66.5, which would make him 27th in the NFL. Somewhere Colonel Kurtz is mumbling “The horror, the horror.”

Pick: Kansas City 

Buffalo (+16 ½) at New England

I know the cheaters known as the Patriots are good...but GOD DAMN that’s a lot of points. Are the Pats the best team in the league? Probably. Did Buffalo just get blown out by 23 last week by the Steelers? Yup. Is Buffalo averaging just over eight points a game? Yup. Am I stupid enough to lay these points? No fucking way.

Pick: Buffalo 

Miami (+3) at N.Y. Jets

Chad Pennington says he’s healthy enough to start. Playing at home won’t lead to better health, Chad. Those savages that go to the games are done with you. Meanwhile, Trent Green throws a pick coming out of the locker room. Look for Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor to make Green “mysteriously” disappear during halftime.

Pick: Miami 

Detroit (+6) at Philadelphia

The Lions are 2-0 and Filthy is 0-2. Let that sink in for a minute. Jon Kitna said a “miracle” got him back on the field after he suffered a concussion early in the Minnesota game. The Lions team doctor said, “Have you seen our depth chart at QB?” They should have a good shot against an offensively-challenged Eagles team whose degenerate fans are no doubt waiting for the first McNabb mistake so they can start booing him. Now you know why I call you Filthy.

Pick: Detroit 

San Francisco (+9) at Pittsburgh

The 49ers haven’t blown anyone away, but they’re 2-0 and leading their division. Pittsburgh has Kobra Kai’d the Browns and the Bills—SF will be their first real test. The long travel for the 49ers probably accounts for the big spread, but I think the visitors can make a game out of this.

Pick: San Francisco 

St. Louis (+3 ½) at Tampa Bay

What happened to the high-powered Rams offense I heard so much about? After two weeks, they’re averaging a little over 14 points. What’s worse is that the BUCS average over 18.

Pick: St. Louis 

Jacksonville (+3) at Denver

The Jags are once again off to an underwhelming start. The running combo of Jones-Drew and Taylor has produced 135 yards in two games. Those games were against Tennessee and Atlanta, by the way. Denver is 2-0, but they've needed Jason Elam to bail them out in both wins. The Broncos defense is tops in the league against the pass but near the bottom against the run.

Pick: Jacksonville 

Cleveland (+3) at Oakland

Tap the brakes on the Derek Anderson bandwagon for a minute. I hate to break it to you Browns fans, but your team still sucks. Keep the number-one pick warm for the Cowboys. Oakland’s defense hasn’t been able to make stops late in games—they've blown two fourth-quarter leads. The 24 ticker is up and running over Sebastian Janikowski’s stiff, worthless leg. Further proof how far Daunte Culpepper has fallen: Lane Kiffin says Josh McCown gives the Raiders the best chance to win.

Pick: Cleveland 

Cincinnati (+3 ½) at Seattle

Looks like the Bengals defense hasn’t changed much from last year. Six TDs for Carson Palmer and they STILL LOSE. Seattle had a setback last week against the Cardinals, but couldn’t have found a better team to play coming off a loss.

Pick: Cincinnati 

Carolina at Atlanta (+4)

The fat pouter Byron Leftwich signed with the Falcons this week. How long before Joey Harrington is practicing his piano man bit on the sidelines? The Falcons are so bad they cut their kicker and signed Morten Anderson, whom you may not know was one of the original drafters of the United States Constitution. Maybe the Panthers inconsistency can be traced to Steve Smith’s choices in favorite films. Tell me which one DOESN’T fit: Gladiator, Braveheart, 300 and The Notebook. Hmm...

Pick: Carolina   

N.Y. Giants (+4) at Washington

Another beaut of a game. The Giants are a mess, but Tom Coughlin continues to cash a paycheck. At least there’s one team out there who’s worse against the pass than the Cowboys. I’m still not sold on the Pigs though. Like the Cowboys, the Redskins are 2-0 against two 0-2 teams. Cheering for either of these teams is akin to drinking stale beer off of a night’s-end bar mat...BUT I can’t have the Pigs starting out 3-0, so I’ll have to “root” for the Giants, although it probably won’t do much good.

Pick: Giants  

Dallas (+3) at Chicago

The game of the week—and a good test to see how legit the Cowboys really are.

2-0 is nice, but the Giants and Dolphins aren’t top-notch teams. Chicago’s defense has dominated, and, along with Devin Hester, will keep the Bears in the game.

The Cowboys can live without Terence Newman this weekend, as the Bears receivers don't pose much of deep threat. Maybe that’s because Rex Grossman sucks.

Normally, I’d be worried that the Cowboys are 31st in the league against the pass...but not so much here. 

It'd be nice to have Greg Ellis, though, as the Cowboys have a grand total of THREE sacks on the year. Dallas must generate some kind of pass rush to force Grossman into turnovers—unless he takes care of it himself.

The key matchup here: Matt McBriar vs. Devin Hester. McBriar’s punts must stay in the air for five seconds and go 45-50 yards. The Cowboys special teams coverage can’t afford to let Hester make game-changing plays.

Pick: Dallas 

Monday, September 24 

Tennessee (+4) at New Orleans

Gee, my NFC pick for the Super Bowl is looking real good—so good they lost to TAMPA FUCKING BAY last week to fall to 0-2. Week Three is early to call this a must-win game, but that’s exactly what it is for the Saints. Too bad for them they have The Amazing Vince Young coming into town. He’ll find a way to keep Tennessee in the game, as he always does.

Pick: Tennessee