2008 AFC North: Why The Steelers Will Win The Division.

The AFC North is a division that has some of the best rivalries in the NFL. These teams and their fans really do not like each other.

The Bengals appeared to be poised to dominate the division after an 11-5 record with a young offensive core in 2005. The Steelers beat them in the Wildcard Round, won the Super Bowl, and appeared to be in complete control of the division. The Bengals have been irrelevant since.

The Steelers failed to make the playoffs after their Super Bowl win, and the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens reemerged in 2006. Then the Ravens crashed to 5-11 as the Steelers took back the division. Forgotten, have been the Cleveland Browns, who came out of nowhere to win 10 games in 2007.

The Browns were one of the biggest surprises in 2007. As big free agency spenders, they look to take the division for the first time since 1989.
 
The AFC North has been a wide-open race the last few years. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC North. Part I
 
Pittsburgh Steelers
 
'07 Record: 10-6
 
Points Scored: 393(ninth)
 
Points Allowed: 269 (second)
 
Playoff Result: Lost in Wildcard Round
 
2008 Strength of Schedule: 153-103 (.598) (first in NFL)
 
Strengths: The Steelers were a great statistical team in 2007. They finished second in points allowed, in large part due to the 27 points they gave up to Baltimore while resting starters the last game of the season. Indianapolis led the league with 262 points allowed.

The Steelers did finish first in yards allowed. They were third in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Mike Tomlin did a great job with this team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.
 
On offense, they also did well. Ben Roethlisberger had only 3,154 yards passing, but recorded 32 touchdown passes. The reason for that is the Steelers threw a lot in the red zone. While the Steelers’ 2,168 rushing yards was third in the NFL, their nine rushing touchdowns were 22nd.

With Willie Parker coming back from injury, the Steelers got a gift by having Rashard Mendenhall fall to the 23rd pick. The Steelers figure to have a formidable running attack for years to come. They should get more rushing touchdowns in 2008, so long as they can replace Alan Faneca.

He is a seven-time Pro Bowler and five-time first-team All Pro, four of which were between 2004 to last season. That is difficult to replace and even though the Jets overpaid for the 30-plus year old guard, the Steelers have some large shoes to fill.
 
They also got some receiver help. They weren’t bad there to begin with. Hines Ward is starting to drop in productivity, but is still a great blocker and team leader. He is consistently reaching around the 1,000-yard mark with seven to ten touchdowns.

Santonio Holmes is entering the "magical" third year for wide receivers, and looks to be on the verge of a breakout year. I expect him to solidify himself as the No. 1 option. Limas Sweed is the tall receiver Big Ben wanted and should fit in well. He is a good end zone and third down target. Heath Miller is a fantastic tight end.
 
The Steelers figure to be in the top 10 of the league in scoring in 2008 again. With the defense they have, that should mean another divisional title.
 
Weaknesses: Here is the million dollar question. How does a team that finishes first in yards allowed, second in points allowed, ninth in points scored, and throws the sixth fewest interceptions, finishes 10-6 and loses in the first round of the playoffs?
 
The problems were two-fold. The Steelers were a terrible road team. They were 7-2 at home, with their sole losses coming to Jacksonville in the regular season and playoffs. Losing to the same team twice at home was a Steelers’ first.
 
A record of 3-5 on the road is just not good enough. Furthermore, those road wins were against Cleveland, Cincinnati, and St. Louis. This team has to show better on the road against the good teams in the NFL.
 
The second problem was the team finished badly. After starting the season 9-3, they finished 1-4, including the playoff loss. I will give the Steelers a bit of a pass on the playoff loss, as not having Willie Parker was a determining factor.

The Steelers need play action to succeed in the passing game and that injury limited them. They also lost Aaron Smith, which hurt their run defense at the end of the season. Troy Polamalu, one of the best safeties in all of football, played only 11 games last year. He missed four of the last six games in the regular season. They had some key players that were not right and were essential parts to their team.
 
Still injuries were not the only reason they fell short. What they need to do is get more sacks and more turnovers. The Steelers had only 11 interceptions, which was tied for last in the NFL. They are traditionally too good at pressuring the quarterback to finish that low.
 
Sacks were also part of their problem last year. Their 36 sacks ranked 13th in the NFL, but there wasn’t much separation between them and a team like Miami, which ranked 24th with 30.0. They need to get into the high 40s or low 50s in sacks to join the likes of the Giants (53) and Patriots (47). Increases in sacks and interceptions will help this team win more games on the road.
 
On offense, they need to give up fewer sacks. The Steelers tied for seventh most sacks allowed in the NFL with 47. To put that in perspective, the Colts and Patriots allowed a combined 44 sacks. Part of that is the offensive line. They need to pass block as well as they run block. Part of that is Big Ben. He has to get rid of the ball better and have better pocket presence.
 
The Steelers have to win with him being a bigger part of the offense. He has led a team to a Super Bowl, is just entering his prime, and that seems strange to say about a guy that threw 32 touchdown passes last year and made the Pro Bowl, but here is my point on that. 

Big Ben threw almost 60 percent of his 32 touchdowns in five games. He totaled 19 touchdowns in wins at Cleveland, at Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and at St. Louis. The Steelers were just 3-2 in those games. That means in the other 11 games he had just 13 touchdown passes and the Steelers went 7-4 in those games.
 
In their three biggest blowouts he had 11 touchdown throws (at Cleveland, Baltimore, and at St. Louis), but he attempted 23, 16, and 20 passes. His best games are when he throws the ball the least. The more he throws the ball, the worse the Steelers are. That is true of a lot of teams, but 30 passes is not that many passes in the NFL. It would be different if we were talking about when he throws 50 passes.
 
If the Steelers are going to improve on their 2007 campaign, they have to be able to rely less on play action and rolling him out of the pocket. While that is a great dimension to have it should be icing on the cake, not be the focal point of the passing offense. He really needs to become better in the pocket if he is going to join the elite signal callers in the NFL.
 
Prediction: I really liked the Steelers' draft and think they have an excellent chance to compete in the AFC. Their struggle is in the schedule, the most difficult in the NFL. They have a brutal stretch where they play Week 8) N.Y. Giants, 9) at Washington, 10) Indianapolis, 11) San Diego, 12) Cincinnati, 13) New England, 14) Dallas.
 
That is six 2007 playoff teams in seven weeks, which includes the two Super Bowl representatives, and three of the four teams that earned first round byes.
The Steelers have owned this division for a long time. They have a great defense, much better than Cleveland’s.

The Steelers are 44-20 since 2004, which is the first year Roethlisberger joined the team. Other than the Super Bowl hangover season, which included a coach on the way out, and Big Ben’s big motorcycle incident, the Steelers have been the class of this division and won 10 games or more every other year.
 
Cleveland is probably going to make the playoffs this year, but they have to prove to me that they can beat the Steelers before I pick them to overtake the Steelers.

The Steelers don’t have a glaring weakness like the Browns' pass defense. That said, Pittsburgh has an impossible schedule and will have to play better than they did last year if they want to repeat as division champs. I think they will do that.
 
2008 Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record: 11-5 – AFC North Divisional Champion; AFC No. 4 Seed

Derek Lofland is the NFL director for Fantasy Maniaxs.com