The big free agents have flown. The draft is done. Its June, and NFL coaches have a good idea about the team they will field.
Sure, teams will have key injuries, drug suspensions, beaten spouses, strip-bar shootouts, and the occasional star running back caught driving drunk or running off to smoke the rope with Ziggy Marley.
But what ya see now is generally what ya get in September. The NFL Super Bowl odds are set. Not set in stone, no they fluctuate as much as Cedric Benson's blood alcohol level driving under the Friday night lights of his old Texas town. But we have a good idea of the favorites, the long shots, the maybes, and the no shots.
Unless an angry actress's ex-gal pal of Tom Brady's gives him the Roy Hobbs pistol packing Mama treatment or Peyton Manning is busted with a bloody bowie knife in his colt blue boot at some seedy Vegas strip club, the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots are the respective top picks to win the big one at a little under 4-1 for the Pats and a about 7 1/2-1 for the Colts.
The San Diego Chargers sneak in nearly nose-to-nose with the Colts at 7 to 1. Then the popular Cowboys at 8 to 1.
But we want value in this topsy-turvy, NFL world filled with migrating free agents and teams desperate to maintain a degree of continuity and depth in key areas such as the offensive and defensive lines. Routinely, those areas are ravaged in free agency.
So we don't want to bet the chalk. Bye Bye Patriots; you peaked. The offensive line's problems with pressure due to age and a lack of depth was revealed. Richard Seymour looks shot. Asante Samuel is gone. The linebackers and strong safety, Rodney Harrison, are aging. So toss out the Pats.
The Dallas Cowboys have yet to win with Tony Romo. The offensive line looked out of shape and the coach looks out coached in big games. Sorry, Jerry Jones. No riding dem Cowboys for me..
The Colts were decimated by injuries last year. The defense is still suspect. The star receiver might be on trial. The offensive line might be a trial for Manning Their time might have passed. Not at this price.
The public bets these popular teams down so it's not a bargain grabbing them.
As for the Chargers, that price is too short for a team that seems to always find a way to fall short. Phillip Rivers hasn't sold me, nor has Norv Turner proven to be a big game coach ever.
That's the problem with betting on the AFC longshots. The road to the Super Bowl leads through New England or Indianapolis. Maybe both. No way does Norv charge his Chargers through those cities.
Nor do the ultra conservative ball control hogs from Jacksonville, the Jaguars, seem to have not a shot to beat two quality teams in a row. Coach Jack Del Rio plays them close to the vest and at 14-1 I'll pass on the conservative ball control crusader.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, not far from a Super Bowl victory, are a bit tempting at 25-1.
Value lies in the wide open NFC race. It's a conference anyone can win and throwing out the Dallas Cowboys and Wade "Son of Bum" Phillips it really opens the race.
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6 months ago
Take the Browns!!!
5 months ago
you are wrong about the Bears this year. Yes I agree that they have alot of young players. However; you seem to be forgetting that they had a mediocre offense in 05 when they made it to the superbowl. Matt Forte is going to surprise alot of people with his smarts and his ability and I'm thinking that he is going to have a huge breakout season like Minnesota's Adrian Petterson did last year. Also we got Marty Booker back for a veterans presence and you can't count out the skills of Devin Hester. Also they have Mike Brown back and healthy to go with pro bowlers Briggs, Urlacher, Vasher and Brown. Be ready for a huge upset of the colts in week 1. 42-14 bears. FYI Orton will be the QB.
5 months ago
With Manning and Freeney being questionable the spread will not jump as much...
That being said if your that confident bet a bunch on the Bears money line....
Just remember their rookie left tackle hasn't practiced, Forte is going to learn blitz pick up isn't as easy as in the the MAC, and the dome will be roaring messing up pass protection and the unproven receivers in their routes...
As for Booker, Parcells thought him shot....and he was always more of a yardstick guy.
But if ya have a hunch bet a bunch...
And ya can get loooooonnggg odds on Forte leading the league in rushing or being rookie of the year....
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