The Mariners are a team that that I truly have limited interest in. Despite being one of two teams which gets "national" coverage in Canada—a blog and rant for another time—the Mariners simply are a team that I cannot cheer for. That is, until I found that their inaugural logos had a trident!
I digress; this team still lacks a big-name youngster to get excited about. This team has thrown money around like a big-market franchise, though it has done so poorly.
Considering the team is backed by the owners of Nintendo, they certainly could compete with the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox for highest-paid team. However, the Mariners are running a "business" and cut corners where they deem appropriate.
Hopefully that time has come to an end, as the Pacific Rim deserves a major-league franchise it can cheer for.
That aside, no one is going 
to argue that the Mariners are in an envious position. There probably isn't a general manager in baseball that would trade what he's got for what the Mariners have.
Especially with $30M owed between Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva. I suppose it was those signings, plus Richie Sexson and Kenji Johjima, that has led Mariners management to squash any desires at making a big splash in free agency this year.
With that said, the nearly imminent loss of Raul Ibanez, very little in the minor-league cupboards that are major-league ready, it sounds as if the Mariners will start from scratch. Although, the club doesn't seem to be interested in truly rebuilding.
However, WWOD really does not care about what the Mariners management wants to do, especially since the Mariners don't seem to have a real plan themselves.
What the Mariners don't need
Veteran pitching—at least in terms of overpriced veteran pitching. The club could certainly benefit from upgrading the rotation outside of Felix Hernandez and Brendan Morrow; unfortunately those roster spots are sewn up by the unsightly trio of Washburn, Batista, and Silva. It's difficult to stomach that those three were at one time desirable.
Despite being one of the most difficult positions to field, the Mariners are surprisingly deep at middle infield. Even for a team that gave away a nice, young middle infielder to the Indians. With Carlos Truinfel, another youngster the club is rushing, the Mariners are "set" up the middle for years to come.
While the Mariners have the middle infield locked down, they also have players with weak on-base percentages locked down. Thus, the club should ignore any players who don't have at least league average on-base abilities.
Lastly, the Mariners need to avoid rushing Matthew Tuiasosopo. Unless an absolutely incredible offer comes around for Adrian Beltre (read: someone willing to take on his salary), sit tight and let him master AAA hitting. Depending on how the season is going for the club, a September call-up should be the most this kid sees of the major leagues.
What the Mariners need
Lots! Although surprisingly not enough to panic. There are available pieces in free agency that would fit in perfectly. The first piece, Adam Dunn, would replace Raul Ibanez. Ibanez will presumably be a type-A free agent and net the Mariners two first-round picks (if he signs with a team outside the top 15).
Dunn will simply cost the Mariners a second-round pick; however, he has enough youth on his side to be a solid source of power and on-base percentage for years to come.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Next up, the Mariners should look at a committee approach to their DH/1B black holes. Dan Johnson will presumably be free for the taking and would make for an outstanding left-handed platoon partner. How about bringing back Richie Sexson as the other half of the platoon.
Sexson has had favorable splits against left-handed pitchers and should come at a cheap enough price to warrant bringing him back to grab a partial return on the club's 2005 investment.
Lastly, the Mariners need some bullpen help. The fact that the team's closer has been largely ineffective or unavailable this season has only furthered this requirement. That said, given a full season out of J.J. Putz, the addition of a legitimate arm to the bullpen will be as good as completely revamping this group.
Ambiorix Burgos from the Mets would be my target. He could presumably be had for Tim Hulett, as the Mets are fairly shallow up the middle.
After those moves, and pending development and a couple rebound seasons, the Mariners could be setup nicely to compete in the weak American League West. Offensively, everything would have to go perfectly, and there is little in the way of legitimate backup plans in the case of Adam Dunn.
That said, there is no way Johjima could possibly perform worse. The Mariners have had the league's worst production from first, as well as designated hitter.
By all standards, Beltre has had a fairly disappointing season from a power perspective. With the moves I suggested, as well as players performing at a level they should, the Mariners would easily improve on their current standing as the third worst OPS in all of baseball.
Here's how they should look
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
2B - Jose Lopez
LF - Adam Dunn
DH - Jeff Clement
1B - Dan Johnson/Richie Sexson
3B - Adrian Beltre
CF - Wladimir Balentien
C - Kenji Johjima
SS - Luis Valbuena
On-base percentage is the team's first and foremost issue. It is nearly impossible to create a top end of this batting order, as the club does not have a single bat worthy of the No. 2 spot.
If Valbuena proves capable of hitting major-league pitching, and that this year's major step forward was not a matter of luck, the Mariners could quickly move him up the batting order.
The bench would be predominantly filled with current Mariners, with one exception, Mike Sweeney. Sweeney would come to town to fight for the designated-hitter job, where his presence would boot Johjima from the club altogether and slide Clement into a full-time catching job.
The rest of the bench would be filled with Sexson, Yunesky Betancourt, Jeremy Reed, and Jamie Burke.
Another option for the bench/Mike Sweeney/Richie Sexson job, ex-Met, and strikeout Master, Victor Diaz. Diaz could easily form the other half of the Dan Johnson platoon, although that may limit the position flexibility—unless Clement can play some first?
The rotation has quite a bit more upside then offense does. There are performances that can only get better, starting with Erik Bedard. Carlos Silva, despite all who disapproved of his signing, is certainly a better pitcher than he has been in 2008.
Brendan Morrow will, at worst, be what the Mariners got from RA Dickey and Miguel Batista. In other words, the rotation will improve simply because it cannot possibly perform any worse.
Here's how it shakes out:
Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Jarrod Washburn
Brandon Morrow
Carlos Silva
Clearly the biggest issue this rotation faced in 2008 dealt with injuries. Bedard was expected to throw 200 near Cy Young innings, instead, he threw 80 good, but not great, innings. Silva has been absolutely dreadful, although he has performed much better than the numbers suggest. Washburn and Hernandez have been about what the club expected out of them.
The big wild card will be Brandon Morrow and how he reacts to the increased workload. The Mariners should be careful with him, keeping his innings under 160. Yanking him in and out of the rotation is not the answer, but skipping his turn once in a while might be the best course of action.
As I mentioned, the bullpen will look as though it has undergone a face-lift simply by having J.J. Putz healthy for the full season. Here's how WWOD would put the bullpen together:
CL - J.J. Putz
SU - Ambiorox Burgos
RP - Sean Green
RP - Eric O'Flaherty
RP - Cesar Jimenez
RP - Miguel Batista
LR - RA Dickey
The one player that I truly wish could be in this bullpen that is not is Mark Lowe. Clearly, he deserves a spot in the bullpen over Batista, and if WWOD was truly running the show, Batista would be playing his snake flute on a street corner somewhere.
However, with the last bullpen spot, it's really not a big deal if Batista is in town or Lowe. That said, if Lowe is out of options and the choice is between Lowe and eating Batista's contract, it's a no-brainer.
I truly love the appearance of Burgos at the top of this bullpen. His stuff is nasty, and he is young enough to build the bullpen around if he truly harnesses his stuff.
This is a club without many options. While Suzuki isn't aging like the rest of us humans, he certainly cannot be depended on to perform at this level beyond 2010.
With Felix and Bedard, the club could have the best one-two punch in the majors, or they could have an over-matched No. 2 starter if Bedard hits the shelf again.
One thing that is disappointing, however, is that people do not consider Dunn the type of bat a team can build around. I disagree and feel as though a trio of Dunn, Clement, and Balentien, while not outstanding, would be a very strong place to start.
The one thing that is encouraging about the Mariners, the club seems reluctant to move its top prospect, French-Canadian pitcher Phillippe Aumont. That, however, should not be mistaken with the fact that the Mariners will treat him appropriately, in that it would come as a surprise to no one if Aumont logged innings at the major-league level in 2009.
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about 1 month ago
The most in-depth article I've read about the Mariners to date on BleacherReport. Good stuff. Send this to Kevin Cacabelos, new Mariners Community Leader.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Rory,
Any changes you would make? Or would you like this team for 2009?
about 1 month ago
Nice analysis of the Mariners! Sometimes it's your year, and sometimes it's not!
from about 1 month ago
Yea, I had picked them to win the division.
Just last night I spit out my drink when I saw that Felix was only 9 and 11.
about 1 month ago
Richie Sexson is not the answer at 1st base. He is terrible at getting on-base and just wouldn't be serviceable. It is unlikely that Bedard will be able to pitch until the the middle of next season because of surgery he is about have on his arm, so that's another hole in the rotation. I think you have snubbed Ryan-Rowland Smith, he's not the best young pitcher, but he is serviceable, being better than Washburn and Silva. I think Carlos Silva just had a bad year this year, I don't think he'll be that terrible next year. If anything, the Mariners' defense needs to be patched up especially in left field and the middle infield...
from about 1 month ago
Kevin,
Thanks for reading and replying.
I didn't state that Sexson is 'the' answer at first. In fact, I said the complete opposite. I said that he could face the left handed pitching side of a platoon with Dan Johnson taking on the right handed, and more frequently faced, pitchers. If Sexson can repeat this years success against lefties, and Johnson continues to mash righties, this could be a very affordable and solid platoon.
There seems to be questions surrounding Bedard and when he will be available. It sounds as if he will not be back, as you mentioned, until the mid point in the season, but he should still log the most #2 innings on the team.
I really don't see much in Smith. He is relatively young, and a lefty, but I feel like he is getting by on that. Fact is, his ceiling is probably Washburn, and while Jarrod is on the downside of his career, with one year left on his contract, its not worth eating that salary-unless he earns it.
about 1 month ago
The M's dont need to bring in a player like adam dunn. They need to start from scratch. They've got a good start in the rotation with hernadez, rowland-smith, and morrow, and once he returns from injury, we can always hope that bedard will have a strong final year of his contract so we can trade him for some minor league depth.
For the offense, i think the mariners need to have a season of no expectations, and let guys like clement, balentien, and maybe lahair just play without pressure. Its obvious that the M's arent going to win next year, so its pointless to sign players like dunn or bringing back sexon. I like bringing in sweeney, the M's desparately need some leadership in the clubhouse.
from about 1 month ago
Do you know what 'start from scratch' would entail? 'Starting from scratch' is not a one or two year makeover. It's three of four years. If the club spends three years rebuilding, Felix will be leaving town. Morrow will be overpriced (unless he becomes a star).
So you want to build the system, which is great, but it also means that what the Mariners CURRENTLY have (Felix, Bedard, Ichiro, Putz, etc) will need to be replaced. When you have four very fine players like that, you consider building around them.
That said, Dunn fits into a similar mold as the aforementioned four. Consider that entering 2009 he will be in his age 30 season. A 5-year contract will have him close out his Mariners career as a 34 year old. Its not unrealistic to believe he will still be an effective hitter at that time.
To me, the Mariners realistically have 2009 to compete and 2010 to rebuild. However, players like Dunn, Johnson, and Burgos could be a big part of the rebuilding process.
RE: Bedard - The idea of trading him should be minimized. He is entering the final year of his contract and will miss AT LEAST April and May. Teams are not going to pay top dollar on a pitcher after about a month and a half of pitching while he is coming off major surgery. The M's would be lucky to get the deal the A's got this year for Harden.
about 1 month ago
Dunn would be a reasonable signing for OBP and power, but not in left field. One of the Mariners' major problems this year is the terrible defense in left, and I don't see Dunn as an improvement over Ibanez. Dunn should either play at first base or DH, and in that case, why not just re-sign Ibanez to DH and move Balentien to left? Leave Jeremy Reed in center to play defense and hit okay.
That said, I do agree with Ben that the Mariners need to start over. They need an organizational makeover with an emphasis on winning and development instead of making money and plugging holes.
from about 1 month ago
Dunn is a weak fielder, but not absolutely dreadful. Given that LF is one of the least valuable defensive positions, the Mariners would be fine with his glove out there. It would be, if I'm not mistake (and with being too lazy to quickly check), superior to Ibanez's.
As for Ibanez, you let him walk to grab his draft pick compensation.
about 1 month ago
Good news on Bedard, surgery went better than expected, there is no torn labrum
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/9/26/622804/bedard-doesn-t-have-labrum
from about 1 month ago
Nice...Makes me look a little bit better now!
about 1 month ago
Or it helps me look better by possibly giving bedard more time to impress other teams.
The M's have been considered an embarassment to the rest of MLB because of signing players leaving their prime to long term contracts, then being surprised that they dont turn out. The M's dont need another all or nothing hitter. They had that in Sexon, and both clement and balentien seem to fit the same mold. They need more hitters like ibanez, consistent but not neccesarily with dazzling numbers.
As for saying that Hernandez and Morrow overpricing themselves for the mariners, the front office seems to be alright with overpaying for mediocre players, and by the time the M's are ready for contention again those contracts should be off the books. Morrow and Hernandez know that the organization has been commited to them ever since they entered it, and the team has shown its faith in them by giving them the fast track, especially with Morrow. I dont see why it isnt possible for the two sides to get a long term deal done before they leave for free agency.
I still dont see how Dan Johnson is any different than Lahair, other than his succesful rookie season, they are basically the same player. The only difference is, Johnson has had his chances to succeed and didnt stay consistent. Sure the M's could take a flyer on him, but take a longer look at what they have first.
from about 1 month ago
First, Sexson and Dunn are fairly different hitters. True they are both powerful hitters who strikeout a lot, but Dunn has an outstanding eye at the plate. Dunn has racked up 100 or more walks each full year he has played in the majors. By comparison, Sexson has never reached that milestone. Thus, one can simply conclude that Dunn will age more gracefully then Sexson, who relied on strength to his home runs.
Another issue, Sexson was 30 the year the Mariners signed him coming off of a major injury. Dunn will be 29 having a single injury throughout his professional playing days-dating back to 2003.
Also, prior to 2007, the Sexson signing wasn't looking all that terrible. He was overpriced, certainly, but so to is every free agent.
Ibanez is not the hitter that Dunn is. While he provides a superior batting average, he has substantially less power and gets on base a lot less frequently then Dunn does. If anyone is a bet to tail off over the next 3 years, anyone would take the 36 year old Ibanez over the 29 year old Dunn to do so. It's hardly even worth discussing.
RE: Morrow+Hernandez
I wouldn't say impossible, but if a deal isn't made this offseason, the odds definitely are not in the Mariners favor.
RE: LaHair v. Johnson
I think it is a fair argument that you are making here. I personally prefer Johnson as he appears to be better suited for a platoon role. He has a superior minor league track record, and an alright major league track record to back that up. LaHair on the other hand is still a work in progress and will struggle to regain the prospect status he held after the 2006 season.
That said, if the Mariners went with a platoon of LaHair+Sexson over Johnson+Sexson, I'm sure it wouldn't be the difference between a 90 win season and a 60 win season, so really, its not a big deal. I simply prefer Johnson and would have more faith in him.
about 1 month ago
What does the fact that Sexon coming off an injury have to do with anything? He hasnt really been injured since being with the M's. I forgot about Dunns' walks, they are definetly a major part of his game, but richie never really lost his power. Its just that his eye was never very good so he wasnt able to keep up with pitchers. I never said his signing was bad, but the ending result is what worries me about the dunn signing. Also the factor of Dunn changing leagues could possibly be an issue, but im not going to use that as a major argument against him.
I never said specifically that the Ms would rather have Ibanez than Dunn, rather that they need a player that fits the mold of Ibanez. They need a consistent all around performer instead of a 1-demensional player like dunn. Thats why i was angry when Bavasi didnt resign Jose Guillen, who is closer to the age of Dunn.
The reason why im fighting the Dunn signing like this is because its a move the M's have always been known to make. They've been a mediocre organization ever since they went downhill from 2001. They've made mediocre attempts at contention, and mediocre attempts at a rebuilding proccess. For once i want them to dive head first into a rebuilding process. I dont want a quick fix, i want the M's to build from within, that seems like the only way we'll be successful.
from about 1 month ago
When a player has a serious injury, the rule of thumb is that they will begin to age quicker. Signing a player to a big money, multi-year deal when they are coming off of a serious injury is a recipe for disaster.
I see your argument of Ibanez over Dunn, but it simply does not work. If you were to never see a players batting average you would have an impossible time telling between a .300 hitter, and a .260 hitter. In fact, according to the numbers, the difference is a hit every other week.
However, you are seeing that Ibanez is a .290 hitter, and that Dunn is a .250 hitter and saying, 'well Ibanez is more of what the Mariners need' and that is incorrect. Dunn should move baserunners just as well as Ibanez does due to the discrepancy in OBP. While Ibanez will do it with a few extra singles, Dunn will do it with a lot of extra walks.
That said, Dunn actually has more 'dimensions' then Ibanez does, look at each players OPS, that combines all 'offensive skills' while a player is at the plate (although in a caveman like state).
WWOD is all for the rebuilding process. I don't feel what I suggested will have the Mariners sway from the rebuilding process. In fact, I mentioned that ridding the club of many of their large contracts is vital, although nearly impossible given the players that are tied to these contracts. I opened up spots for youngsters to come in. I made a move to bring in the next 'closer of the future'.
I think you are reading and writing from the perspective that Dunn will be like Sexson, two nice seasons followed by two terrible years. I, on the other hand, fully expect Dunn to be a valuable major leaguer well into his 30s. I think you are seeing the signing of Dunn as a 'quick fix' whereas I am suggesting it to fill an organizational need, something the club doesn't have, and won't have unless they make a signing like this.
about 1 month ago
All im saying about a rebuilding process is that when a team is ready to contend, the young players on the team should be entering their prime/breakout seasons. Signing a player who isnt going to get any younger who could potentially block a younger player with upside (balentien) is not how you want to go about a major rebuilding process. Sure Dunn could be a great asset to the M's, but he'll be like Jose Guillen on the Royals, someone who could be our MVP, but the team as a whole hasnt improved.
As for the next closer of the future, I believe the M's are still talking about signing Josh Fields, a Brandon Morrow-type pitcher who they hope will reach the majors quickly and help out the bulpen. And I doubt the Mets would give up a reliever such as Burgos, especially because they desparatly need bullpen help. If he can possibly be as good a pitcher as you think he can be, then i doubt the M's could pry him away.
from about 1 month ago
Dunn wouldn't block Balentien in the least bit. Dunn would rotate around LF, 1B, DH. Balentien would rotate all three outfield spots and slide to DH whenever he needs rest. There are plenty of options here, none of which would have Balentien nor Clement missing any time BECAUSE OF Dunn.
The Mets have grown tired of Burgos. He had an issue with the law this year and it seems as if the Mets are ready to move on without him. Seeing as how the Mets are troubled at second base, if seems as if he could be had for Betancourt.
Josh Fields was not signed and the signing deadline has passed. I'm not exactly sure how the rest of this will work out, but as far as I know, Fields has to re-enter the draft. Obviously he would be the best choice, but it seems as if it didn't work out.
about 1 month ago
I dont think transitioning young players such as Balentien and Clement from position to position would be good for their development. The M's arent sure yet if Clement would even stay at catcher, so if he is in a DH/1B type position, so he and Balentien would probably have to check the lineup card every night. That doesnt sound like the type of situation that would help a prospect improve.
If he had an issue with the law, and a team with one of the worst bullpens in the majors are willing to move on without him, that raises some major red flags.
I dont see why everyone has gone sour on Betancourt already. Hes still young (26) and his season was hurt by a slump that lasted from may to june. Otherwise he would have had a more respectable season. He is still a very raw player and i believe that if he becomes more refined, ie: Baserunning and Plate Discipline, then he could be a very complete player.
As for Fields, he was a graduating senior in college. I'm not positive about this, but I think the M's have negotiating rights with him until next years draft, though his agent is Scott Boras.
from about 1 month ago
Refer back to the lineup that I suggested. There isn't any issue with finding the kids playing time, you are just digging right now.
Betancourt is allergic to walks and the Mariners have a sufficient replacement, whom I mentioned, that is ready to take over and perform at AT LEAST Betancourts level.
The negotiation window has been changed and if I am not mistaken, the window closes on August 16th or 17th. This is why there was that big issue with the Pirates first round pick. It doesn't appear as if Fields signed by the previous deadline despite rumors that a deal was close. Thus, we have to believe he isn't a part of the franchise until signing details are confirmed.
about 1 month ago
The problem with the lineup you suggested is that unless you plan to give Reed more playing time, Dunn would have to stay in LF, not transition between it and 1B and DH. Instead of pumping more youth into this team, you simply replaced one young player (Betancourt) with another (Valbuena). Balentien and Clement have been given starting roles so far.
The reason why you want to sign Dunn is that free agency wont negatively affect a major league roster because there would be no subraction such as in a trade. The point of a rebuilding process is that you have to give something up to better yourself for the future. What is the benefit of holding onto players such as Beltre and Washburn and letting them walk? Trade Beltre for young players now while he is regarded as one of the top 3B in the league. Hopefully the new GM wont be asking for too much for his players and actually get some trades done.
Even though he is still not a part of the franchise yet, the chances of Fields joining the organization are much greater than Dunn being signed, so I think he should be included in this discussion.
10 days ago
I like that except get rid of some of those guys. get what you can for Bedard, johjima, washburn and ichiro. I really want Adam Dunn though. Also Sexson is NO. I say get Overbay for first. Trade bedard to rangers for prospects specciffly Teagarden and daniel murphy maybe others. trade johjima and putz to tigers for prospects. SIlva moves to bullpen. Trade washburn in july. that would be an awesome team!
from 10 days ago
Well, it would be the beginning of a team in rebuilding mode. Which would invariably be superior to what the M's have right now!
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