Projected Lines:
Erik Cole-Shawn Horcoff-Ales Hemsky
Robert Nilsson-Andrew Cogliano-Sam Gagner
Dustin Penner-Fernando Pisani-Ethan Moreau
Kyle Brodziak-Marc-Antoine Pouliot-Zach Stortini
The first line features newcomer Erik Cole playing with Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky. Eric Cole and Ales Hemsky should benefit from each other's strengths this season. Hemsky is one of the best one-on-one players in the league, and Cole should reach the 30-goal mark this season.
The trouble is that Shawn Horcoff, no matter how great he played last season, is not a first line center. First line centers are players who have exceptional offensive abilities, and their stats prove it.
Coming into this season, Horcoff has roughly 0.6 points per game, whereas a true first line center averages at least 0.9 points per game. Although he has a very good defensive game and is very versatile, Horcoff has been thrust into a role to which he is not suited. And, with his hefty new contract, expectations will be raised dramatically. The reality is that he will never be able to get more than 80-85 points in a season.
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One thing to consider is that this line could hold more of a defensive responsibility than most top lines in the NHL. Craig MacTavish plays a very defensive brand of hockey, and, depending on how he chooses to match lines, Edmonton's top line could very well see Jarome Iginla, Joe Thornton, and Pavel Datsyuk with 20-25 minutes per game.
Both Cole and Horcoff have excelled in a shutdown role before, so defensive responsibilities are not out of the question.
Line two is all about the kids. Cogliano, Gagner, and Nilsson all had surprisingly good seasons last year and have shown great chemistry thus far in training camp and preseason. This could be one of the most exciting lines in all of hockey this season.
Sam Gagner's offensive instincts and hockey sense are brilliant, Andrew Cogliano is one of the fastest skaters in the league, and Robert Nilsson can play a solid all-round game. One thing that could be an issue for this line is toughness and whether or not they can handle being pushed around. For now, the main focus of this second line should be only on offense, with minimal expectations on defense.
The third line should excel in a shutdown role similar to what Fernando Pisani and Ethan Moreau have been trusted with their entire careers. Both are exceptional defensive forwards when healthy, and Dustin Penner will add size, toughness, and offense to this line. There will be very minimal offensive expectations for this line as long as they play well defensively.
The fourth line features former first round draft pick Marc-Antoine Pouliot with Kyle Brodziak and Zach Stortini. Pouliot and Brodziak both play solid two-way games and have the ability to produce on the score sheet every so often. Stortini can drop the gloves whenever necessary.
At this point, this line’s entire role will be to give the top six forwards a break and eat minutes. If they can contribute on the score sheet, it’s an added bonus.
Overall, this set of forwards looks very good. A strong top six, with two solid defensive forwards in Pisani and Moreau makes this set of forwards look like one of the best in the Western Conference.
Overall Grade: A-
comments (4) write a comment »
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about 1 month ago
Now, I'm not much of a statistician but I'm confused how Horcoff's 0.6 points per game was calculated. Is this throughout his entire career? I was assuming the phrase "coming into this season" meant last year's stats. Obviously this is not the case.
50 points in 53 games last season = 0.943 points per game
Oh! Or was it including the 29 games Horcoff was out due to injury???
50 points in 82 games last season = 0.610 points per game (!!Must be it!!)
I believe in giving credit where credit is due.
50 points in 53 games puts Horcoff above the "true first line centre" mark of 0.900 for the 2007-2008 season.
from about 1 month ago
it was througout his entire career...
he plays an excellent two-way game, but isn't first line material....
about 1 month ago
Yeah I agree with most of the article. The overwhelming sense this year is that the Oilers have plenty of depth at forward, fielding 4 solid lines, but they really need that "superstar" that they haven't had for more than 15 years. It's really too bad they lost out on Hossa.
And, last year notwithstanding, Horcoff is not a true #1 centre.
from about 1 month ago
yeah...Hossa would have made the lines very interesting...putting Cole and Penner on the 3rd line with Pisani would have been an option...or splitting up the kids....
horcs is a great 2way guy; very responsible in his own end and will contribute on the scoresheet more often than not, but a 1st liner (aside from New Jersey and Minny) has to concentrate on offense and offense only
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