Toledo (1-4) at Michigan (2-3)
12:00 p.m. Saturday at Michigan Stadium
Line: Michigan -16.5
This is going to be short and sweet today and you can blame the opponent for this as I don't put much stock into MAC teams even though I went to a MAC school (Central).
Michigan is a combined 24-0 against MAC teams with the latest victim being Miami (OH) in Week Two this season. But the Wolverines have never played Toledo which surprised me seeing how the two schools are so close to one another.
Maybe it's had to do with the Toledo War.
Both of these teams are pretty close to each other statistically with Toledo having the slightly better offense and Michigan having a better defense so this could get interesting.
Don't write off Toledo and be surprised if Michigan barely pulls out a victory.
Michigan Pass Offense vs. Toledo Pass Defense
Well the Wolverines are still stuck with Steven Threet unfortunately and we all know how that's worked out for them so far.
Threet is averaging 130 yards a game and has a dismal 49.6 completion percentage along with five touchdowns and two interceptions. My god those are awful numbers for a Michigan quarterback.
And no, I'm not mentioning fumbles. I don't think I really have to anymore or else the vein in my forehead might erupt.
Toledo's passing defense is ranked 55th in the country and junior safety Barry Church has been making plays. He leads the team in tackles with 40. Junior linebacker Archie Donald is a sneaky mother with two interceptions this season.
Martavious Odoms looks like he might sit this one out with a sore shoulder which really sucks. Darryl Stonum is making a return after missing last week for disciplinary reasons that were not mentioned in detail.
And despite numerous reports and a story from the Free Press, Kevin Koger does not look anything like Greg Oden. Koger, although 18, looks like a solid 22 maybe 23. Oden looks like he's up for retirement already at age 62.
Advantage: Even
Michigan Run Offense vs. Toledo Run Defense
Both these units are ranked in the high 80's nationally so I don't know what to expect.
Sam McGuffie at times has shown brilliance but an inability to carry the full load every down. His 63 yards per game is simply not enough at this point and Michigan needs him to do more.
Especially if Rich Rodriguez is not going to use Brandon Minor or Kevin Grady more, which I still don't understand why he wouldn't.
Toledo is giving up 171.4 yards on the ground this season so maybe McGuffie has a breakout game or something.
Mark Moundros is proving to be a very valuable full back in the WVU mold of Owen Schmitt so good news there.
The offensive line had breakdowns of epic proportion last week not only in pass protection but run blocking as well.
Rodriguez keeps shuffling these guys from week to week and I'm starting to feel that he needs to stick with one combination from now on so that these guys can get comfortable with one another.
Toledo senior defensive lineman Sean Williamson has been a little bit of a force as he leads the team with two sacks and four tackles for losses.
Advantage: Michigan (barely)
Toledo Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense
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about 1 month ago
Good writeup. Look for Michigan's offense to show some consistency and hopefully put up some points!
Michigan 24, Toledo 10.
about 1 month ago
Michigan should cover this week. I would expect something like 35-17. Speaking from the perspective of having watched most of McGuffie's games the last few years while living in Cypress, Texas, Wolverine fans have yet to see the best of Sam's game. He absolutely will run wild in space once the blocking improves and Sam starts making the reads better. I witnessed a few games last year in person that were far more impressive than the outdated Youtube reel. He had a couple of 300 yard games basically on one leg and a separated shoulder. The best thing about him was that I never saw him once fumble in high school. This year he had the botched exchange in the Utah game but that was a fluke. I agree that Minor should get more work and that Grady should see more short yardage touches however Shaw shouldn't get in there until he can pick up a blitz.
about 1 month ago
Nice write up! I agree Michigan will not cover the spread. The game will be close in the second half, but I think the wolverines pull it out in the 4th quarter. Final score Uof M 28-13.
about 1 month ago
Holy Toledo!
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