Tim Connolly, Ales Kotalik, and Maxim Afinogenov.
The trio of extremely talented forwards has always faced both adoration and criticism in Buffalo. Three of the longest tenured Sabres, each brings a quality the Sabres don't have in another player to the ice.
Connolly, still young at only 27, is the perennial health risk. When healthy, however, he is one of the best playmakers in the league. His fluid skating ability, vision, timing, and hands are all near the top of the league. He is deadly both on the power play, as an assist man, and as a penalty killer, because of his ability to know what an opponent is going to do before they do it.
Kotalik, 6'2" with a blistering slap shot, brings a size to the team they have often been criticized for not having enough of. Kotalik can play the point on the power play and is deadly when he can wind up and let a shot fly. Strangely, he is also one of the best in the league in shootouts.
Afinogenov is fast. Old school Russian hockey player fast. Afinogenov has the kind of speed and passion that makes Rick Jeanneret's excitable voice jump two octaves. He is the kind of playmaker who moves, shakes, shimmies, and stickhandles. He believes he can beat anyone in the league one-on-one, or one-on-four. He has often made the kind of play that leaves fans in disbelief.
Despite their immense talent, none of them are considered part of the Sabres' top-six. Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Drew Stafford, Daniel Paille, Jochen Hecht, and Paul Gaustad (once healthy) will all be above them on the depth chart.
Precariously, each of the three is playing out the final season of his contract for the Sabres. As a quick note, so are Andrew Peters and Jaroslav Spacek. But the difference with Spacek seems to be that his head is on straight and the potential to bring him back seems higher, and I just don't care about Peters enough to write more than this in a story on him.
These players have to feel like they are in somewhat of a dubious situation. Management has put in the hours rewarding players they deem as their future. Over the past two seasons, Miller, Pominville, Vanek, Hecht, and Roy have all been given long contract extensions.
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Expect Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera, Mike Weber, and Dan Paille to each get longer deals over the next few years also. The Sabres may bring back Spacek, as the team has realized it should refocus its money on the players who actually want to be in Buffalo.
The Sabres have already committed over $41 million for next season, have some of the aforementioned players to lock up still, and have a bunch of players in Portland playing this season to prepare for next season. Even if the cap goes up next season, the Sabres seem to have hit their saturation rate and understand that their cap max is around $50 million.
For Connolly, Kotalik and Afinogenov, the writing on the wall is pretty clear: Give it one more shot, thanks for the memories, buh bye. But what happened to these three, exactly?
Connolly's downside is that he doesn't just have an Achilles' heel; he is an Achilles' heel. He is always one hit away from another concussion or body breakdown. Kotalik doesn't use his size nearly enough. He will flash it in for a shift in games, and show it more often in playoff games to the point of dominance, but his inconsistency, streakiness, and disappearance are mind boggling.
The problem with Max? Too much. He skates too much, he thinks too much, he wants to do too much. He plays as an individual. Defensemen are faster now. Forwards know that to remain in the league, unless your name is Crosby, backchecking is paramount. Cherry picking doesn't work, and hockey is now, more than ever, a team game. Players who think individually and try to take play to a one-on-one game will simply lose.
Any combination of the players in Portland, the Russian prospects, or the European prospects joining the roster next season would give the Sabres two choices.
They could let the new wave of youth be their depth, and the current veterans locked up become their true leaders as they gel into a new type of team without Connolly, Kotalik, and Max on the roster. Alternatively, they could bring up the youth, but also make an attempt at one major free agent acquisition in a strong free agent class that could move the roster talent near the top of the league. Either way, the future seems to be without the trio.
I've never been in the locker room, nor do I claim to know the true makeup of these three players. Nevertheless, these three hold the destiny of the 2008-2009 Sabres season in their hands. Anyone who has ever had a job which has an expiration date knows the feelings felt inside as that date nears.
There is a turmoil felt between a sense of duty over an obligation to finish the job and the aloofness for whether it should really be finished. One might possibly sour on the job, or the company as a whole, and stop caring completely.
The Sabres' season depends on head coach Lindy Ruff's ability to get the to-be free agents to perform. A productive third and fourth line, as well as a productive power play depends on them.
Can Ruff motivate these players and push the right buttons so they perform for their teammates, for personal pride, or for their next contract? Will these players perform after seeing their teammates rewarded with rich deals, knowing their own future depends on both a good performance this season but also finish the season in good health?
What will happen the first time a check isn't finished by one of these guys, and more importantly, what will happen in game 80 if the team needs a win for the playoffs? Many will say it will matter, and many will say it's just business; and the players understand.
If Connolly, Kotalik, and Afinogenov are able to put everything they are feeling aside and showcase their talents, the Sabres will bounce back from a playoff-less 2008. If they cannot, the hard part then goes to Regier and Ruff. They'll need to put loyalties aside and accurately assess where these player's heads are at.
If they decide their hearts or heads are not in it and the season starts to spiral negatively either internally or externally, they need to pull the trigger on a deal and ship these players out of town.
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about 1 month ago
Nice article. I would say Connolly is just mentally weak. He is always waiting for the other shoe to fall and him have another injury. But lets be honest. He does not exactly try and lower the risk of getting another injury either. Skates through the zone with his head down comes right to my mind. Buffalo fans seem to be stuck on 05-06 with this guy. Granted he has great hands, but has yet to show any form of durability or care to be durable since the lock out. He stated last week he was in the best shape of his career. Low and behold he is injured again a day later.
Kotalik I am not as upset with as other Buffalo fans get. He is what he is. His shot is elite. The problem for him is he needs the perfect/smooth pass to make it dead nuts on. I always thought a guy like Marc Savard would be a perfect center for Kotalik. His physical play play does not get under my skin either. If you watch close he is tough to get the puck away from and usually players with a shot like his are not big physical forces. I was talking with a goal tending coach last season prior to a game that night and brought up the name Kotalik to him. His words to me were this. "Kotalik is the kind of player that if you do not hear his name all night you know he did a good job" Obviously withstanding scoring. But still I am sure fans will get the point. He also commented on how dangerous his shot was. He was actually do I dare to say enamoured with it. All that being said Kotalik really does not bother me and I am pretty sure he will get a new contract from the team.
Max Oh my buddy Max. First this is my kids favorite player so I try to be nice in the house when complaining about the endless turnovers, or the complete lack of awareness of line mates. Max is an enigma that is it. He had one real decent stats season when the entire team was successful. Besides that IMO he is a giant headache. The kid is gifted with a second gear most only pray to have playing hockey. Problem is his legs work faster than his brain. He is a player that is not very versatile. Lindy stuck him with Mair and Kotalik last game and that was ugly. the only 2 players that seem to have a handle playing with him is vanek and Roy. Roy started his Buffalo career with him and Milan Bartovic on a line together. And to this day he has never had another line mate that can even guess what he does. Players stand in the offensive zone as he skates in circles and wonder what is going to happen next. When a pass comes to them. They are caught off guard. Max IMO will not be here next year. He is too hard to find line mates for to play on this team. If Roy were to go out I think Max would be stuck in a funk to the likes which fans may have never seen.
Sorry for being so long winded about this comment.
about 1 month ago
If we could ever keep Connolly healthy enough, he would be the perfect guy to throw a pass over to Kotalik and allow him to take that wicked slap shot. Unfortunately, he doesn't have Savard's resistance to injury, and therefore, Kotalik is left to play among his label: a power forward. Bernier was looking to be a great replacement for Kotalik in that area for a while, but I guess for Darcy, that wasn't to be.
about 1 month ago
I agree with both of you and your observations. Kotalik is the prototypical rocket shot who simply needs a true setup man to get him the puck. This article started twice as long, with deep in-depth analysis of each player's past and possible future, as well as the kids who could replace them, I just had to cut back in order to make it readable and to find its true point.
That being said, I think both Connolly and Kotalik have an opportunity to stay with the team after this season. I think Lindy likes Kotalik a lot more than the fans do, and his clutchiness and ability to be big (as in hitting people) in the playoffs is still something the Sabres lack.
Connolly has to know his market value can't be incredibly high due to his health. He's stuck in a Lindros-type conundrum, as I said in the article. Incredible talent, just can't stay healthy.
I truly think Lindy likes both Connolly and Kotalik as well. In an interview before the season, Lindy recently stated that Connolly is their best playmaker and having him on the team and healthy completely changes their ability to do things. Lindy also often seems willing to put Kotalik in a position of importance in the playoffs, which is really why I think they keep him around. If he shows up then, then and coasts through the season, contributing on the power play, shootouts and popping in 20 goals, its the kind of player a team keeps around.
With Max, I just think there isn't a Darcy Regier value for his type of player anymore, and keeping him around for gate draw (he is everyone's kid's favorite player, not just yours, Ron) is worth more to the Sabres. Max's best chance at succeeding in the league would be to go to Detroit, learn there is more to hockey than Maxim Afinogenov from an entire team, where the expectation is that every forward play defense but the expectations are ridiculously high. It needs to be from someone other than Lindy Ruff at this point and it needs to be from a team where he isn't a senior member, because it seems he isn't willing to listen to peer pressure from his teammates or play Lindy's system anymore.
That being said, appearances aren't always what they seem. Max could be trying his hardest to play a team game and just suck at it, Connolly could have the same type of metabolic disease Rocco Baldelli has and nobody has accurately diagnosed it yet, and I dunno, Kotalik just is, so there isn't a whole lot to say about him.
Unfortunatley for the Sabres, there is always a team willing to take a risk/overpay for both of these type of players, and we as fans have to remember the team's main priority isn't winning, its profit, because above everything else, its still a business.
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