Since NBA rookies have never played a meaningful game against the supreme competition of the league, it’s always uneasy treading when asked to predict how a rookie will perform.
However, this season’s particular rookie class is packed with talented youngsters who will be asked to perform significant roles for their teams. Let’s examine what we can expect from the best of this year’s rookie crop.
Greg Oden—Portland Trail Blazers
Despite being drafted in 2007, this season will be Oden’s rookie campaign. After needing microfracture surgery last offseason to heal his right knee, Oden was forced to miss the entire 2007-08 season while recuperating.
However, Oden is much more advanced than every other rookie this year. For starters, his body is much more NBA-ready than any other first year player‘s. Already blessed with massive shoulders and tremendous upper-body strength, Oden had the opportunity last year to get involved with Portland’s weight-training regimen, giving him a year of professional body work most rookies don’t have.
Oden also had the chance to observe Portland’s walkthroughs, film sessions, and practices, giving him an entire year of learning how to prepare for games, and what Portland head coach Nate McMillan expects in specific scenarios.
Finally, Oden is simply a special athlete. He has the physicality to be a terrific defender in this league, the strength to be a great rebounder, and the talent to be a capable post scorer sooner rather than later.
All rookies struggle defensively their first season, but the hope is that since Oden will be asked to provide defensively more than offensively, his defensive growth will be accelerated. Even watching film for a year should give him a better understanding of defensive positioning, when to rotate, and how to play help defense. His post offense isn’t refined yet, but he’ll score on dunks, put backs, tip-ins, and the occasional hook or duck-under in the post.
It isn’t out of the question to expect Oden to average a double-double this season with a couple of blocks and assists thrown in. It’s hard to expect him to reach his full potential until later in the season—but given that the Blazers are already stacked with talent across their roster, Oden can focus on being a complementary player and filling defensive, rebounding, and occasional post-scoring niches right off the bat.
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Michael Beasley—Miami Heat
Like Oden, Michael Beasley was drafted onto a team that already has star talent. With Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion in Miami, Beasley doesn’t have to burden himself with being Miami’s main scoring option. And since Marion will most likely draw the opposition’s best defensive forward, Beasley will get opportunities to score from the post and off the bounce against lesser defenders.
While Wade and Marion are creative scorers, Miami doesn’t have many other consistent offensive options besides Marcus Banks’ erratic scoring, James Jones’ threes off the bench, and Udonis Haslem playing pick-and-pop. Because of that, Beasley can expect many opportunities to rack up points. He has the talent and is in the right situation to lead all rookies in scoring this year.
O.J. Mayo—Memphis Grizzlies
Mayo will be given ample playing time as Memphis’ shooting guard to figure out how to play in the NBA. He’s strong and athletic, and should be effective putting his head down and getting to the rim.
However, given that Memphis lacks the role players needed to run a complex offense, Mayo’s scoring chances will almost exclusively come in transition or out of isolations. Those offenses tend to disappear against good defenses—one of Memphis’ problems last year, and one of their expected downfalls this year.
It’s hard to expect Mayo to be efficient when he’s only a 6'4" shooting guard who will be asked to create his own scoring opportunities. He’ll score, but his field-goal percentage won’t be great, and he won’t make too much of a difference in Memphis’ win column—at least for this year.
Derrick Rose—Chicago Bulls
It’s hard to predict what to expect out of Derrick Rose, since there is so much uncertainty surrounding Chicago’s roster. Will Kirk Hinrich start at the point? Will he start at the two? Will Hinrich, Rose, Ben Gordon, Larry Hughes, and Thabo Seflosha all get minutes?
These are all factors affecting how much playing time Rose will get. Besides worrying about playing time, he’ll also have to learn the offense, earn the respect of veteran teammates, and adjust to first-time head coach Vinny Del Negro.
Despite being strong, smart, and explosive, only the most prolific point guards step in right away and excel as playmakers—and those players are usually given complete control of the team. Expect Rose’s role, and production, to fluctuate as the year progresses.
Russell Westbrook—Oklahoma City Thunder
Since the Thunder are rebuilding, it’s only a matter of time before Russell Westbrook takes the starting point-guard position away from Earl Watson and runs with it.
Westbrook is wonderfully gifted athletically, but very inexperienced at handling the ball and running an offense. The best place for him to hone those skills would be in the starting lineup, where he can focus on running diagrammed plays for Kevin Durant—not off the bench, where play is more chaotic and random.
It’s unlikely Thunder coach P.J. Carlesimo would want to throw Westbrook to the wolves right away. But he’s certainly a player who could have an explosive second half when he gets more playing time.
Kevin Love—Minnesota Timberwolves
Kevin Love will have every opportunity to hit open jumpers when opposing defenses double-team Al Jefferson, and to corral Jefferson’s leftovers on the boards.
Love doesn’t have much of a post game, and he won’t have much room to work in the post with AJ taking up space down low, but he should be effective living on the perimeter and hitting open jumpers.
The T-Wolves don’t have many reliable scorers, so Love’s number should be called frequently throughout the year.
Chris Douglas-Roberts—New Jersey Nets
In the preseason, Chris Douglas-Roberts has shown an uncanny awareness at overplaying passing lanes and coming up with steals. He’s also been able to create his own shot in the halfcourt and rebound the basketball.
With the Nets in the midst of a youth movement, and featuring a collection of mediocre wings surrounding Vince Carter, CDR’s energetic play should inspire Lawrence Frank to put the youngster in the game. Even if his offense is raw, his ability to create turnovers would mesh nicely with New Jersey’s energetic bench stable of Eduardo Najera, Keyon Dooling, Sean Williams, and Jarvis Hayes.
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about 1 month ago
Good evaluation.
Considering "Pops" Oden's mature features and a year of off-court NBA experience, he truly is a man among boys in this year's rookie class.
about 1 month ago
Always looking for a different perspective, I happened upon this blog. After reading these two quotes on O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love, I think I'll be moving on.
"It’s hard to expect Mayo to be efficient when he’s only a 6'4" shooting guard who will be asked to create his own scoring opportunities." Are you crazy. All Mayo does is create his own scoring opportunities. He only passes the ball when his dribble is stopped. Did you watch him in HS, AAU play, or at USC? The one thing O.J. Mayo does well is create his own shot.
And how about this gem: "Love doesn’t have much of a post game." Have you ever watched Kevin Love play? His post game is legendary. He has the ability to score over much bigger players. In the Pac-10 he dominated Brook and Robin Lopez, Aaron Baynes, Maarty Leunen, Devon Hardin and more. He understands post play better than almost every other NBA player.
I suggest considering another blog for you...the NBA doesn't seem to be your forte.
from about 1 month ago
Bill, do you think a 6-4 shooting guard asked to isolate all the time, who's playing with role players who don't set screens and don't run sets, is going to come in and have an efficient? Unless your name is Dwyane Wade, it doesn't happen.
And being an effective post player in college is different than being an effective post player in the NBA. Love has short arms, isn't particularly explosive, and will have Al Jefferson's defenders in his way because Jefferson has to play near the basket.
Dominating college players is nice, what is he going to do if he tries to post up Rasheed Wallace, Tyson Chandler, Tim Duncan, etc?
from about 1 month ago
Love dominated the Lopez twins??? 4-7, 6-13 and 4-13 for a 42% FG% in 3 meetings. I wouldn't say he understands post play better than almost every NBA big man. Love will be able to score from the post, and has a "post game" but he will also get beat-up down low. His "post play" may lack for the time being, and stronger players will be able to push him away from the hoop.
As for Mayo his game will translate much better in the NBA than it did in college. He can hit shots from all over. At USC Tim Floyd didn't run an offense that got him inside the arc enough and he was froze out. If he can get inside, and in the paint, he will do major damage. He jumped 41 inches at the pre-draft camp, and is a strong finisher. Since when is 6-4 and a 40+ inch vert not good enough? Also, Mayo can pass, and he will pass. This kid doesn't want to be good, he wants to be great.
from about 1 month ago
John, how many above average 2-guards play in the NBA at under 6-4?
Wade, Gordon, Iverson, Ellis, and I'm pretty sure that's it. Of those for, Ellis may be the fastest player in the league, Iverson may be the quickest, Wade may be the strongest inch-by-inch, and Gordon is a sixth man at best. Only Wade is a great finisher
from about 1 month ago
...whoops, pressed "post comment too early."
Only Wade is a good finisher, and only Wade is a good defender. Plus if you're not lightning quick, you can get shut down by lengthy defenders, like Gordon does.
Mayo can pass, but Memphis' offense is so simple, it's just going to be harmless drives and kick outs. NBA defenses can react to that far easier than something where action is happening on the weak side.
I have no doubts that Mayo will produce, I'm not sure if he'll be able to produce efficiently. And since the Grizzlies are already an inefficient team, I can't expect the Grizzlies to significantly improve this year.
from about 1 month ago
So for starters Mayo is listed at 6-5. He did measure in at 6-4 and 1/4 at the draft camp and he is more of a combo guard than a pure SG, he will play some point and some 2 guard. He is not playing at under 6-4.
Here is a list of above average SGs that are 6-5 and under: Ray Allen 6-5, Ben Gordon 6-3, Kirk Hinrich 6-3, Iverson 6-0, Rodney Stuckey 6-5, Monta Ellis 6-3, Steve Francis 6-3, Cuttino Mobley 6-4, Dwyane Wade 6-4, Randy Foye 6-4, Rashad McCants 6-4, Nate Robinson 5-8, Jamal Crawford 6-5, Leandro Barbosa 6-3, Raja Bell 6-5, Eric Gordon 6-4, Gilbert Arenas 6-4 and DeShawn Stevenson 6-5.
That is a solid list to me.
6-5/6-4 is not small, and with a 40+ inch vert he is very athletic. I don't think Mayo lacks any speed or quickness. The shorter you are, the quicker you are in most athletic situations. With Gay at SF, it will keep long defenders on the other team from locking onto Mayo.
Wade the only good defender? Iverson is a good defender, Ellis is a good defender, how about Raja Bell?
Wade is the only good finisher? Iverson doesn't even dunk anymore and he still can finish in traffic. Ellis can finish in the half court. Wade is a GREAT finisher, other guys are good.
You say below you think Bayless will play some 2 guard, how tall is he? His wingspan is less than his height, and I'm not going to get into the other flaws in his game except for that he had a serious lack of efficient production last year. Why didn't you say anything about him being too small to play the two?
Also Gordon is much more athletic than you think, he is another 40+ vert guy.
from about 1 month ago
Newsflash: Kevin Love is taller than Maarty Leunen, so your argument there is flawed. Kevin Love is also not ready for the NBA, he is not fast enough, look for him to be a bust, i can't wait
from about 1 month ago
Iverson has never kept a player in front of him his entire career. How does recklessly gambling into the passing lanes time and again constitute a good defender? Gordon gets shut down by any player with length and is too small to be a good finisher. You bring up a 40+ vertical as if none of his opponents can jump either. What about things like court vision? It's hard to see if you're usually giving up a couple of inches to your defender.
Assuming Mayo starts and Mike Conley starts, then Mayo will get most of his time as a 2-guard. Assuming Conley is Memphis' point guard for the future, then Mayo better start learning how to be an NBA 2-guard.
3/4 of the guys you mentioned are horrible defenders. Most of the rest play the point guard position on their teams. Most of the guys are also very inefficient scorers, relying on quantity rather than quality.
And Bell isn't 6-4 like Mayo is.
Iverson is a poor finisher in traffic. Watch him try to get to the rim against teams that rotate. He missed about 5 layups a game in his playoff series against the Spurs a few years ago. He has a terrible shot selection and is an inefficient scorer, and that's giving him the fact that not a single player in the game can stay in front of him.
I never said that Mayo was too small to play the two. I never said that Mayo won't be a good two guard. Even with Iverson's flaws, he's a "good" two guard. What I said was that Mayo would be an inefficient scorer with a lot of points, a lot of shot attempts, a lot of turnovers, and a low field goal percentage.
Bayless will be coming off the bench against other backups. Backups don't usually take part in complex offenses. He'll provide an offensive boost, the same as Mayo will, but he probably won't make a huge difference in Portland's grand scheme this year.
about 1 month ago
Hey Erick, I dig the article, but no J Bayless? I know Oden is the high profile rookie in portland, and Bayless might not get as much run as these other guys, but what do you think about Bayless and him fitting in, up in Portland?
from about 1 month ago
I wanted to get the article done quickly, it had a deadline of this morning, so I probably left a few people out.
I think the best thing to happen to Bayless was Martell Webster's injury. It clears up minutes for him at the 2-guard if McMillan would rather give Fernandez and Rodriguez the backup point guard spot. I like Bayless coming off the bench as Portland's designated second unit slasher. Backups would have trouble defending him, and he can shoot the three as well, so he can play off of Rodriguez and Fernandez driving in transition and kicking it out to him on the wing. I expect him to provide a nice offensive boost off of Portland's bench.
about 1 month ago
Westbrook has had a lot of TOs in preseason. I expect him to have a lot in the regular season as he moves from college combo guard to NBA point.
I think ROY voting will be:
1. Oden
2. Mayo
3. Beasley
from about 1 month ago
Good observation John, and I agree. The Thunder have nothing to shoot for this season though, so I'd still force feed Westbrook the ball and let him learn on the job. That's my early list for ROY too, btw.
about 1 month ago
I also enjoy Robin Lopez and Jerryd Bayless. There's also Nic Batum in Portland.
from about 1 month ago
Portland has so many good rookies, it's crazy.
about 1 month ago
I agree Love will have a tough time in the post in the NBA for reason that you said. However, I disagree with Mayo. He should do fine creating his own shot, and most experts agree he was the most NBA ready player in the draft.
about 1 month ago
Portland also has Brandon Roy who won Rookie Of The Year a few years ago as well, with a "man" of Greg Oden I couldnt agree more with you Erick, that the Trail Blazers will have an out break of a season this year.
about 1 month ago
I cant wait to see Beasley on the court this year. Got me even more excited. Great Article Erick
about 1 month ago
pretty solid article man, I am a huge Bulls fan and i agree with what you said about Rose, i do think he will start though with Kirk at the 2
about 1 month ago
Thats a nice photo of Oden you put up.
from about 1 month ago
lol, is that sarcasm? It's just a stock photo BR had in their Greg Oden section. It looks like he's three feet taller than Sacramento's defenders as they stare up in awe, so I think the pic works.
from about 1 month ago
You didn't detect any sarcasm. I live in Portland and have waited a long time to see Oden play. I thought it was nice because it was an angle I haven't seen yet. Plus that is only 1 of a million shots of Oden we will see in his career.
from about 1 month ago
Well thank the guys at BR for finding the photo and adding it to their collection. All I did was click "add photo." I have a feeling many more stupendous photos will be taken of Mr. Oden throughout his career.
about 1 month ago
Rookie of the year will go to either Michael Beasley or Kevin Love. In fact Nicolas Batum may have a bigger impact on the team then Oden does.
about 1 month ago
ROY will be Rudy Fernandez. Did everybody forget his 22 points against the Redeem Team? I saw him singlehandedly put up a week's worth of highlights in his NBA debut against the Kings. His first NBA assist was between the legs of Jason Thompson, leading to an easy flush by Aldridge...mark my words, he will be king.
about 1 month ago
i think alot of people are forgetting about
DJ augustine in Charlotte, playing for larry brown
and we all know how larry brown likes fundmentally
sound Point Guards. I also like Chris douglas roberts
in new jersey with them rebuilding he can come in and
have an immediate impact.
about 1 month ago
No JJ Redick!! lol. If you include Oden in the mix, you might as well put JJ in there as this will be the first year he sees any quality minutes. He's looked good in preseason and is probably the most dangerous shooter in the NBA (save for Ray Allen) as soon as he hits the floor. I believe Van Gundy made a mistake by not using him more last season, although I agreed in his explanation that Evans and Dooling were better defenders. JJ will always have to work to get open and will have limitations due to his lack of elite athleticism, but with Superman drawing double teams, there should be no problem getting open looks. Just look at the Magic last season and the amount of 3's that were put up by Hedo, R. Lewis, M. Evans, J. Nelson, Arroyo, Dooling, Bogans and others.
from about 1 month ago
Redick? haha, you know this will count as Oden's rookie season right?
Peja hit 44% of his 6.8 3's per game.
Nash hit 47% of his 4.7 3's per game.
JJ was 39.5% of 43 attempts in 34 games. I don't know if hes a dangerous shooter yet.
Also that might be Redick's problem in Orlando is that Nelson, Lewis and Hedo all shot above 40% from behind the arc. Evans was 39.6%. They have guys that can shoot, and can do more than J.J., he needs to find a team that doesn't have that deep threat.
about 1 month ago
John, I was actually saying it somewhat in jest, but the reality is that he should see more time this season. With more attempts, I believe that his percentage will go up. You have to realize that he shot just under 40% from beyond the arc while basically being ice cold and coming in at the end of games.
Also, many of the people he was competing with for time last year have moved on and he basically is in a rotation with Pietrus and Lee (the RC) as Bogans expects to be the odd man out. So, he should be used more this season.
Yes, I realize this actually counts as Oden's RC season. And I expect him to do well too although the guy really needs to work hard on his offensive game. It is lacking right now and alot of what he got away with in HS and at OSU won't work against the Western Conference bigs.
about 1 month ago
I realize that many men I watched as players are taking up head-coach roles. Guess I'm getting old.
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