Week 11 provided us collge football fans with some, say, closure. Penn State's loss cleared the way to what most fans believe is the rightful national title matchup, a Big 12 vs. SEC showdown.
Nittany Lions fans may not like this, but the truth is that the both the SEC and Big 12 champs, even one-loss champs, would look much more attractive to play in the championship game than an undefeated Penn State team—those are just the cold-hard facts. Would it happen? Probably not, if PSU were to finish undefeated, they would go to Miami, nobody would have liked it, but they would go.
Each team will have a different path to reach the title game, some easier than others, here's my take on how easy each team's road to Miami will be.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tide have an easy schedule before the SEC title game (home dates against Mississippi St. and Auburn), but anyone that has seen them since the Georgia game know this is not the same Alabama team. They haven't dominated opponents and have relied too much on their defense to win games that should have been much easier. That bodes badly when they face the Gators in Atlanta.
Path to Miami: Win out regular season schedule, beat Florida.
Chances of it happening: 30 percent. The Tide will most likely than not win out and reach the SEC title game undefeated. To beat the Gators the Tide will have to play at a level they haven't for over one month.
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The new media darlings are red-hot and have dominated every team they played this year and did not let up as some predicted they would last week against Oklahoma St. Now comes their biggest test of the year, a visit to Norman that will determine the Big 12 South champs (sorry, Texas). Do I believe they can win it? Yes, I do (in fact, I have since the spring, points 14 and 15 show that much) and from what I've seen so far this year, they will knock out the Sooners. Need a reason why? Two words, Sooners' defense.
Path to Miami: Beat Oklahoma, run over Baylor and beat Big 12 North champ.
Chances: 90 percent. If you are a Tech fan, I'd start planing my trip to South Beach; should be fun.
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about 1 month ago
If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, I'm not convinced they beat Oklahoma State. OSU feels more animosity towards OU than almost any school in the nation feels in their rivalries, and this year Okie State's offense is good enough to rip OU's defense to shreds. Then again, OU's offense will rip OSU's defense to shreds, so we'll see what happens.
about 1 month ago
Gustavo - Good predictions. It looks like you got 14, 15 and 21.5 right. ;)
about 1 month ago
3. Ohio State-USC will be one of the most enjoyable games of the whole year, and the winner will face Missouri for the championship.
7. Michigan will be much better than people predict. Even if Rich Rodriguez's offense doesn't work at first, they will still be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten. Hello Outback Bowl.
Hee hee... ;-)
Good call on Oklahoma-Texas Tech, though.
from about 1 month ago
I know, I whiffed pretty bad on many points, but then again, the name of the article was "Fearless predictions," so..... :)
about 1 month ago
Pretty good except...
You total 265.0000001% instead of the actual 2 x 100% that really exist.
USC goes if either the Big 12 or SEC champ happens to have 2 losses which while unlikely is a tiny bit more plausable than 5%.
Penn St. has a chance if both conferences produce 2 loss champions that is more like 0.0000001
from about 1 month ago
well, i wasn't making all teams based on the same 100 percentage so it doesn't really matter. I didn't really bother with Penn St. but it would take basically the same thing that would take for USC.
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