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If the season ended today, the BCS landscape would look like this, given the current BCS standings and the current BCS arrangements...

If the Season Ended Today: BCS Projections

by Michael (Analyst)

15

657 reads

Editorial

November 13, 2008

College Football, Alabama Crimson Tide Football, Texas Tech Football, BCS Championship, BCS Controversy, BCS Busters, Editorial

If the season ended today, the BCS landscape would look like this, given the current BCS standings and the current BCS arrangements.

 

Because the season is not over, conference title games have not been played, and this is purely speculation at this point. I am choosing conference champions based on BCS rankings.

 

 

 

The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.

 

Alabama (BCS No. 1) vs. Texas Tech (BCS No. 2)

 

The champion of a BCS conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid unless two other teams from their own conference finish No 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS rankings.

 

Doesn’t apply in this case.

 

The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if it is ranked in the top 12—Utah (MWC, BCS No. 7) and Boise State (WAC, BCS No. 9)—or ranked in the top 16 and higher than another BCS Conference champion.

 

Ball State (MAC, BCS No. 14)—Big East Champion Pitt is ranked No. 21.

 

A special case is made for independent Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.

 

Doesn’t apply in this case.

 

No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games.

 

Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State would be eliminated.

 

The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.

 

Texas (BCS No. 3) receives at-large bid.

 

If the third-ranked team did not require an at-large berth, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, and if it is a member of a BCS Conference.

 

Florida (BCS No. 4) receives at-large bid, due to so-called "Kansas State Rule" which ensures that the No. 1-No. 4 BCS teams appear in a BCS Bowl.

 

 

 

The BCS Bowl Matchups would look like this.

 

BCS Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech

 

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State

 

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. at-large or Pittsburgh

 

Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. at-large or Pittsburgh

 

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. at-large or Pittsburgh

 

Pittsburgh would be assured of a BCS Bowl as Big East Champion.

 

 

 

Here is the reality.

 

Because Utah, Boise State, and Ball State would all automatically qualify for the BCS, someone would have to be left out.

 

There are 11 teams to fill 10 slots. You can't have 11 teams when only 10 are required.

 

This is why the BCS is so comical, and why we need a playoff in college football.

Author Poll

What team would be left out in this scenario?

  • Utah (MWC Champion)
  • Ball State (MAC Champion)
  • Boise State (WAC Champion
vote to see results
Author Poll Results

What team would be left out in this scenario?

  • Utah (MWC Champion)

    5.1%
  • Ball State (MAC Champion)

    79.5%
  • Boise State (WAC Champion

    15.4%
  • Total votes: 39
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comments (15) write a comment »

  1. "There are 11 teams to fill 10 slots. You can't have 11 teams when only 10 are required.
    This is why the BCS is so comical, and why we need a playoff in college football."
    Michael,
    Do you think that with a four or eight team playoff, there won't be five or nine worthy teams? Playoffs would create the same problem in a different format.

    1. There won't be a way to fully solve this at all.

      1. The old bowl tie-ins denied teams to determine a true national title. Example: 1994 Penn State/Nebraska

      2. The BCS allows 'mid-major' teams, or 'non-BCS conference' schools to participate in the BCS only if they meet a certain criteria. If they're 'non-BCS' they shouldn't be allowed anyway. Non means NO, doesn't it??

      3. A plus 1 scenario takes the winners of a 'final four' type matchup and those two play for a championship. All good, except how do you determine the four teams who play to begin with??

      4. A playoff would be another problem. Do you take 4 teams? 8 teams? 16? and on and on?? How many are worthy??

      College football needs a playoff, but a logical one that will satisfy everyone.

  2. Michael, I like the way you think. So let it be written, so let it be done!

    Surely the Sugar bowl will have a better team in it than Pittsburgh?

    Great article!

    1. If the season ended today, they would line up against either Florida, Texas, or North Carolinal while a BCS buster would fill the other 2 slots. Talk about some sacrifical lambs!!

    2. * sacrificial

  3. umm aren't oregon state currently winning the PAC 10?

    1. Yes, they have the H2H tie-breaker...you are correct steve.

    2. At the top of the article:

      "Because the season is not over, conference title games have not been played, and this is purely speculation at this point. I am choosing conference champions based on BCS rankings."

  4. yeah thought so. So if the season ended today it'd be oregon state v penn state not USC v penn state in the rose bowl

    1. At the top of the article:

      "Because the season is not over, conference title games have not been played, and this is purely speculation at this point. I am choosing conference champions based on BCS rankings."

  5. Naw, I think it should be Oregon State vs. Michigan State.

    All 3 teams (PSU, MSU and OSU) have 1 conference loss till now. So MSU wins the Big Ten on the virtue of not scheduling a FCS team like OSU/PSU. Thats a Big Ten rule or something.

    1. At the top of the article:

      'Because the season is not over, conference title games have not been played, and this is purely speculation at this point. I am choosing conference champions based on BCS rankings.'

  6. Oops... sorry didn't read that.

  7. i think that bsu should be going to a bowl game cuz they are doing just as good as these other teams.

  8. >The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth
    ...
    >There are 11 teams to fill 10 slots. You can't have 11 teams when only 10 are required. Because Utah, Boise State, and Ball State would all automatically qualify for the BCS, someone would have to be left out.

    Only the highest ranked non-BCS champ automatically qualifies. So, that would only be Utah here so there isn't a conflict with the policy.

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