Northwestern Wildcats (7-3, 3-3) at Michigan Wolverines (3-7, 2-4)
Noon, Saturday at Michigan Stadium
Line: Michigan -4
This might quite possibly be the hardest game of the season to predict for Michigan, seeing how things have gone thus far.
After last week's dominating win at Minnesota, what team can I possibly expect to show up on Saturday after the Wolverines have stunk for the better part of the season?
Will Michigan revert back to form, or will they answer the call and carry momentum from last week to give the 15 seniors on the team their last home win at the Big House?
I'm going with the latter. Why? Because there's something different about Michigan that I noticed last week, and it was a sense of pride restored and urgency not seen all season.
Michigan players and coaches have for the most part been embarrassed with how the 2008 season has gone, and if there's any saving this year, it's going out on a high note.
Northwestern comes into the 69th meeting with the Wolverines a different team than in years past. The Wildcats have actually won a few games.
But look at who Northwestern has beaten to become bowl eligible. The likes of Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, and Ohio were their non-conference competition.
The only team the Wildcats have beaten with a .500 record was Minnesota, and that came on a final minute pick six, not to add to the fact we all saw what a fraud the Gophers are anyway.
Let's see how these two match up.
Michigan Pass Offense vs. Northwestern Pass Defense
Nick "The Human White Knight" Sheridan is back as your starting quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines.
Will he save the day and slay the mighty Wildcats, or will he wave the white flag once again?
All right, I'm getting out of hand with the analogies, but I can't help it.
I'm happy he's getting the nod over Steven Threet. I've always believed you have to go with the hot hand, and while Sheridan may have not been exactly on fire, he did play pretty good.
The passing offense altogether is starting to gel.
Pass blocking has improved, the wideouts are getting better each week, and Sheridan and Threet have been improving with every snap.
Martavious Odoms is quickly becoming a top weapon and Darryl Stonum is making strides. This unit with Greg Matthews could be really dangerous next season.
Northwestern is ranked 84th in the nation, giving up 228.9 yards per game, and Brendan Smith has been pretty good in coverage.
Smith has two interceptions and six pass breakups, but the Wildcats' secondary only has eight picks this season. Northwestern's pass rush is much more dangerous with 27 sacks, led by Corey Wootton's 7.5.
If Michigan's pass blocking can hold up and give Sheridan some time, then he might be able to pick apart the secondary.
Advantage: Michigan
Michigan Rush Offense vs. Northwestern Rush Defense
After being a major strength for the second half of the season, this unit might falter this weekend, especially if Brandon Minor doesn't play.
Minor is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has excelled in the zone read rushing attack, breaking multiple rushes for long runs.
Without that threat, Michigan might be in for a long day.
My only hope is that Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw are prepared to step up and make some plays. Shaw has shown the ability to break one, as has McGuffie, but far too often McGuffie goes down on first contact.
Northwestern is 44th in rush defense giving up just over 120 yards per game against mostly cupcakes.
Corey Wootton has 13.5 tackles for loss, showing his ability to get into the opponent's backfield. In fact, Northwestern as a team has accumulated 69 tackles for loss.
Brad Phillips leads the Wildcats in tackles with 85 as the strong safety and has the tenacity that coach Pat Fitzgerald had as a player.
If there was ever an opportunity for McGuffie and Shaw to show that they'll be significant factors in Michigan's backfield for years to come, this is it.
Rich Rodriguez is bringing in a slew of running backs in next year's recruiting class, and there have been rumors of McGuffie being homesick, signaling a possible transfer.
I hope that doesn't happen and he actually pans out, but he has to become either more elusive or show some toughness and break some tackles.
Without Minor I'm giving the advantage to Northwestern, simply because Shaw and McGuffie haven't proven to be every down backs yet. Flashes of it, but not quite sold.
Advantage: Northwestern
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about 1 month ago
Northwestern all the way in this game! And hope Kafka starts
about 1 month ago
Hey Jason - I hope your prediction is closer this week than it was last week (what was that, Minnestoa 38, Michigan 24?) I expect the game to be closer than your prediction, but if the Wolverines can put together another solid effort, they could pull off another win.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah I've been pretty much off the whole season as far as predictions go. Have to admit that. But last week's prediction was what was expected after giving up 48 points and 5000 yards to Purdue so do you really blame me there? It's been tough predicting Michigan this year but I have to keep trying.
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