This is another attempt for me at a response article. I'm disputing Mike Dockery's Can Alabama Beat Florida? Five Reasons Why Crimson Tide Could Win the SEC.
And here we go...
1. Florida's big wins against teams that Alabama squeaked by do matter, a lot
The BCS computers, whether you agree with their results or not, are based on formulas developed by genius mathematicians. These geniuses have determined that including margin of victory in a ranking system is a better predictor of a team's future results than by simply considering the result (won or lost).
The BCS computers by rule cannot currently use margin of victory, but the formula inventors still can keep track of margin of victory for their own research.
The computer ranking creators have decided that margin of victory is significant. It is logical to me, so I will agree with the geniuses
2. 'Bama does not match-up well when you look at common opponents
However, there are some qualifications that have to be made.
One cannot simply say that since Florida beat Tennessee by 24 and Alabama beat Tennessee by 20, Florida is a better team.
It's possible that one of those games was a fluke.
But what do we mean by fluke? A fluke occurs when unusual circumstances have to occur in order to achieve a certain score. Maybe there is a heavy rainstorm, or strong wind gusts, or every fumble bounces to one team.
So I'm not buying the idea that there are several flukes that have led to the margin of victory difference.
If you want to talk about flukes, talk about the Florida—Ole Miss game. 30 percent of the Gators' turnovers this year came in that game. Also, Jonathan Phillips has attempted 67 extra points/field goals this season. He made 66 of them. The one that was blocked happened in the same game that the Gators had a season-high in turnovers. Talk about a fluke.
Alabama squeaked out the Ole Miss win because they won the turnover battle three to two. Florida lost because they lost the turnover battle three to one. All we can conclude from those two games is that Florida made too many mistakes.
But that isn't a trend for Florida, so it must be a fluke.
Comparing Arkansas and Tennessee results is not really productive because the results were similar and those two opponents are not exactly firing on all cylinders.
What is significant is the way Florida and Alabama played Georgia and LSU. There is no excuse for a letdown in these games. The only reason why a team would not play up to its potential would be injuries. Injuries also explain why Florida destroyed Kentucky 63-5. That was not the same Kentucky team that lost to Alabama by three.
So we can learn a lot from these teams' performances against Georgia. For example, Alabama led 31-0 at halftime. Then they allowed Georgia to score 30 points in the last 30 minutes. Florida led 35-3 with over 18 minutes left. Georgia only managed 7 more points when both teams were using backups.
Florida played better defense when looking at the entire game. Both teams built a lead, but Alabama was unable to maintain their performance while Florida kept Georgia's starters out of the endzone the entire game.
In the LSU match-ups, Florida rushed for 265 yards while allowing 80. Alabama rushed for 138 yards while allowing 201. Which leads me to my next point...
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about 1 month ago
The main reason: Florida is the better team.
about 1 month ago
Yes Florida is the better team. Florida is not better in Defense. Offense yes there better by a little. Even Special Teams UF is better. There ONLY better right NOW!!!! Bama has the better Coach!!!! Also, they still lost to Ole Miss. AT HOME!!!! Bama has ZERO loses!!!! ZERO loses!!!! Remember when EVERYONE was picking the Hurricanes to crush Bama in the National Championship Game, Bama still won!!!! This game will be one for the record books!!!! Bama by 3!!!! Your crazy to think that if Bama wins, its a fluke. CRAZY!!!!
DON'T FORGET FLORIDA STILL LOST!!!! BAMA HASN'T!!!! It's NOT a Fluke!!!!
from about 1 month ago
Do you think that Florida fumbling three times and having an extra point blocked after Ole Miss jumped over the UF lineman has anything to do with Florida's ability to beat Alabama?
Do you realize that Moody, Demps, and Rainey have had a different role in the offense since that game?
Do you realize that Florida has won 6 SEC games in a row by 28 points or more?
People also said I was crazy for saying the Vandy game would be 42-10 and the South Carolina game would be 49-14, but I bet I was closer than you would have predicted.
And if Florida is better on offense and special teams, that should be enough to cover any advantage you perceive in the Alabama offense/Florida defense match-up.
from about 1 month ago
Bama doesn't have a better defense. Florida is better in the only statistic that matters: Florida allows less points per game.
For Bama to win, Florida will have to have an off-day (like they did against Ole Miss).
Michael is right. Florida is a completely different team now than in September (when the lost). They are using their running backs a lot more. They're blocking punts instead of returning them. They're outscoring their opponents 101-0 in the first quarter of the last 6 games.
Bama is going to be in for a rude awakening if they think they are playing the same team that lost to Ole Miss. Bama should prepare for the team that has won 6 straight SEC games by an average of 40 points. If they prepare for the team that lost to Ole Miss, they will not be ready for the game.
I think Florida wins comfortably. If both teams bring their A game, Florida wins 38-17. If Bama looks like the Bama that has struggled to put away teams, then Florida wins 49-3. If Florida plays like they did against Ole Miss, Bama wins 38-17.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for expanding on your first comment Nick.
Also worth noting is that the game is played indoors. There is no threat of cold weather, rain, or wind interrupting Florida's explosive attack and causing a sloppy, turnover-prone game.
If Florida wins the turnover battle, they win. Plain and simple.
about 1 month ago
It's interesting that you are pompous enough to think if Florida loses, it must be a fluke. Your analysis is faulty at best, and just plain wrong, at worst. I have no need to 'convince' you Alabama can do this or that to defeat Florida. When the do defeat Florida, and they will, I'll simply e-mail you the scoreboard and watch you try to weasel out of your "prediction".
from about 1 month ago
I was joking at the end of the article. Obviously, Alabama is a good team. They are capable of beating anyone.
The point is, all signs point to a Florida victory. I'm watching the games and following the stats. This is what I see happening. I've formed an opinion based on my justifications, and I won't regret forming one if Alabama wins.
I fear that the end of my article has prompted you to go into attack mode. I don't mind if you disagree with my opinions, but you are not really accomplishing anything by telling me that I am wrong.
Where did I go wrong in my analysis?
Please enlighten me. I am open to debate. This whole article is debating another article.
about 1 month ago
Michael,
Nice Article.
One thing I think you and Bama Mike both left out of your articles is the Alabama Special teams.
I am biased and agree that the Gators Special teams are playing lights out, but Bama's Arenas has some of the same game changing abilities as Brandon James.
I still think you put both teams head to head playing at all cylinders on offense, defense, & special teams and Florida has the edge. We'll see if Meyer can keep them focused.
Definitely can't look past Bama like some of our other Gator nation is...
They are winning games in the same fashion we did in '06 and have the potential any given week to have a UF vs OSU type blow-out.
from about 1 month ago
Actually, UF is playing better than they did in the 2006 season. Steve Spurrier says they are better now than in 2006, and I agree with him. Florida was not as dominating in 2006 except for the championship game. Urban does not want to say that because the 2006 team won the championship, but this team is fully capable of winning the championship too.
I agree that Arenas should have been mentioned. Really, Bama Mike should have mentioned him because my article is already pretty long.
Thanks for your input.
from about 1 month ago
Michael,
To clarify, I meant that Bama is winning games like UF did in '06. Just good enough, but you know they have that first half of the GA game potential.
Go Gators!
from about 1 month ago
Doesn't that make Florida this year like Ohio State two years ago? haha thats funny.
I can say with absolute certainty that Florida will not get beat by 27 points.
about 1 month ago
Michael,
Re-read your article. The whole point of it was a bash-Bama push-Florida agenda. Alabama has played above it;s head the entire season, and will continue to do so.
The circumstances were similar in 2005 when Florida came calling to Tuscaloosa and left with a 31-3 thrashing. Florida has yet to play a defense like Alabama's. Give Nick Saban 3 weeks to prepare for anyone, defensively, and you are asking for problems.
Your entire argument is based on the outcome of games vs the same played opponents. That line of reasoning is flawed from the get-go. You can not compare Ala-UGA to UF-UGA, or any other. Different games at different times/circumstances in the season...
I don't usually let my temper get the best of me, but your article struck a nerve. Let's just agree to disagree and enjoy the game. It will be proven on the field, not on this forum.
about 1 month ago
Good article, Michael.
I think my article still sums up my position.
Alabama fans certainly won't mind all the hype that Florida seems to be getting. If I remember correctly, Alabama has been the underdog twice this season: those two games were the best games the Tide has played all year.
So, if you want to go ahead and buy that ticket to Miami, be my guest. Just make sure you can exchange it for a ticket to New Orleans.
from about 1 month ago
Tickets are already taken care of.
http://www.yoonew.com/exchange
I wish I went to MIT and thought up this website.
Currently I have fantasy seats that cover all SEC vs. Big 12 match-ups except Alabama-Texas and Alabama-Texas Tech. But you know me, I'm not too worried about Alabama.
I especially like my 2 Florida-Oklahoma fantasy seats at $13.74 each.
Thanks for the compliment though. I was expecting to hear much worse!
from about 1 month ago
This yoonew thing is the coolest ticket idea I have ever seen...
about 1 month ago
Why not just give the game to Florida, since it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Alabama has no chance of winning? If they play it Tebow might get injured and cause them to lose the BCS championship game. It is too bad that the pundits did not tell Ole Miss that they could not posssibly win in the swamp.
from about 1 month ago
Right on, Charles!
Bama might as well mail their RSVP to the Sugar bowl, since they won;t beat UF. LOL!!!
about 1 month ago
To Richard and Charles and anyone else with almost the same comment:
If Alabama is going to win this game, then shouldn't there be some sort of statistical advantage that Alabama has over Florida?
And by statistical advantage I do not mean that Alabama's defense allows fewer yards per game than Florida's.
Alabama's defense is not playing Florida's defense.
Which match-up is Alabama going to exploit?
In what phase of the game is Alabama going to have an advantage over Florida?
Where is the insight from Alabama fans? All I'm hearing is complaints.
from about 1 month ago
First off, stop making excuses when you lose a game. You lost, accept it and move on. Stop taking things away from Ole Miss. They beat you in the Swamp, that's embarassing.
Florida wont be able to run all over Bama with their 5 9" 180 lbs running backs. They are fast and that's it. Bama has trouble with big physical runner, like Charles Scott. Expect Raney and Demps to be stuffed.
Bama will be able to run the ball on Florida because we have the best O line in the country. Andre Smith is the number 1 lineman in the country according to scouts. Plus we run a power game, not finesse like Florida. I'll take power over finesse every time.
We tend to contol the TOP too. It's for UF to score when they are not on the field.
I thought this article was going to be about how the teams matched up against one another but instead all you use is stats. Stats don't mean anything come Dec 6.
You sound like an Ohio State fan right before the 2006 National Championship game.
from about 1 month ago
You missed the whole point about the Ole Miss game. That had nothing to do with making excuses. That game was in September. Do you really think I would still be making excuses now? Bama Mike mentioned flukes in his article, so I decided to give an example of what I thought was a fluke. The stats suggest it was a fluke.
And besides, for anyone to argue that Florida will beat Alabama, they have to refute the argument that Florida can't beat Alabama because they lost to Ole Miss.
Tebow and Moody are power runners and Harvin's strength is probably overlooked since he normally just outruns everyone. Florida can run physical too. Where is your speed?
Florida can focus on stopping the run, since you guys aren't going to be throwing 5 receivers at us. That was the plan against Georgia, which has the best pass offense in the SEC. Do you think Florida is going to be intimated by Alabama's pass offense?
Alabama has a great running game, but do they have the passing attack to keep Florida honest? I don't think so.
We tend to score points instead of running out the clock. That's how we roll. I'll take 44.1 pts and 29:32 minutes of possession per game over 31.7 and 32:15. Since our special teams and interceptions caught by our defense give us good field position, it doesn't take us long to score.
I don't see how anyone can write an article about how teams match up without mentioning stats. That would be far too subjective. I use stats because they are objective. As a result, the most common argument I get in return is: You lost!
Why are we bringing Ohio State into this? Can we stop talking about that awful team? It's not like we're going to lose by 27 points. Is that what you're predicting?
about 1 month ago
And even if it was defense vs. defense, Alabama is the 3rd ranked total defense nationally and UF is the 6th (1 and 2 in the SEC respectively). It's not like that even offers a huge statistical advantage.
about 1 month ago
"You missed the whole point about the Ole Miss game. That had nothing to do with making excuses. That game was in September. Do you really think I would still be making excuses now? Bama Mike mentioned flukes in his article, so I decided to give an example of what I thought was a fluke. The stats suggest it was a fluke."
Actually, no I didn't missed the whole point. When you say Ole Miss won by fluke then you're basically saying they aren't good enough to beat you, they just got lucky. That my friend is called an excuse.
You think Florida can play power football. You must not watch them much. Moody doesn't get into the game until garbage time so I don't even know why you mentioned him. Tebow's rusing average this year is poor. If Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and LSU can hold him a combined to 87 yards on 51 carries (1.7 ypc) then I highly doubt Bama will have a problem with him.
You must not watch much Bama football either. You said Bama doesn't have the passing offense to keep Florida honest. John Parker Wilson has posted better stats across the board in his career than the great Mathew Stafford. You don't go 11-0 by being 1 dementional. Btw, Bama doesn't turn the ball over, so don't expect great field position.
Why am I bringing up Ohio State?? Can't you conncet the dots? It's your attitude, it's the exact same of an Ohio State fan in 2006.
Florida's finesse (soft) offense will be exposed.
from about 1 month ago
I already defined what a fluke is. According to my definition, it was a fluke. I'm not "basically" saying anything. I already made it clear what I was saying.
No one has watched more Florida football than me this year. I've attended every game in the state of Florida, and I watch the road games on tv. Maybe it is you who has not seen enough Florida football? Moody has been hurt. Tebow has been used in mostly short yardage situations. If we need them to run, they can.
Sorry, I'm not impressed by Wilson's 8 TDs and 5 interceptions. I'm glad that he has had an excellent career, but what does that have to do with this team?
I already showed that Florida turns the ball over less than Alabama. I really don't see how Alabama is going to win the field position battle. Their best chance of getting good field position is when Florida kicks off. But that usually comes after Florida scores.
I was joking about Ohio State. Although they have been overrated.
I really don't see what is wrong with having confidence that my team is going to win. Why is that so offensive to people? Don't you also have confidence that your team is going to win?
about 1 month ago
Statistics are for losers, we're concerned with winning.
-Bear Bryant
about 1 month ago
Alabama is going to win the war in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Caldwell, Smith, & co will BLOW the Gators off the ball to set up the passing game. Bama has the type of physical line that Florida has never seen this season. I see Bama going up early like they did in the UGA and Clemson games & Florida never recovers. This game is eerily similar to the 1999 SECCG. Harvin won't be there and Tebow will be running for his life like he has NEVER had to do at UF.
One way or the other, it will be proven on the field tomorrow - ROLL TIDE!!!!
about 1 month ago
The whole point of the spread offense is to neutralize the defensive line's push toward the backfield by running and throwing to the sides of the field. It's more important for the linebackers and the secondary to tackle well because Tebow won't hold onto the ball very long as a thrower and those players will be trying to cut off runs to the outside.
Harvin will play. It's wishful thinking to say that he won't. We don't know how healthy he will be, but he's obviously going to play. It's too big of a game and there is so much time off afterwards that it wouldn't make sense for him to not play.
No, the game is not similar to the 1999 SECCG. Tebow is a Heisman Trophy winner, and this is the best team in Florida Football history. Florida is not going to lose by 27 points.
about 1 month ago
Congrats on the win, UF. We'll be back.
To Michael; Harvin didn't play, but you didn't need him. Two plays sealed it for Florida; the questionable face-mask in the early 4th quarter when the Bama defense stopped UF on 3rd down. Also, the next Bama possession, when we threw it long on 1st down after UF score. If we went back to run and play-action pass, the outcome might have been different.
Big thanks to Coach Saban, his staff, and our team!!! This season was awesome!
from about 1 month ago
Yeah Meyer wouldn't let Harvin play. Harvin really wanted to. We'll never know how much he could have contributed.
That was a great game. Alabama played well. There were a number of plays that could have changed the outcome of the game if they had gone in Alabama's favor. I know the Gators scored on at least two 3rd & goal plays, so those were game-changers.
I didn't expect the game to be that close, but I also thought Harvin would play.
Good luck to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. If they play like they did today in the Sugar Bowl, they'll win.
I also must say that Tim Tebow played great. With Harvin out, we really needed Tebow to run well, and he did. If he doesn't win the Heisman again, I hope he at least gets some other quarterback or best player award because he deserves it.
But for now, I'm sure he's just happy to be an SEC Champion.
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