The story out of the Coaches vs. Cancer semifinal games was not about how the Duke Blue Devils (4-0, #10 AP, #5 Coaches) were almost upset again (the game was not even close this time), but rather how an underrated Michigan Wolverines (3-0) team upset the young, fourth-ranked UCLA Bruins (2-1, #4 AP, #4 Coaches).
The Coaches vs. Cancer final is set to tip off at 7:00 tonight between Duke and Michigan, and the question on everyone's mind is will the Wolverines pull off a second top five ranked upset in as many days?
The only way to come up with the answer to will they is to answer at can they.
The Blue Devils lived and died by the three-pointer last season. In games when they lost or won by less than five points, their average three-point percentage was 31.7 percent. Compare that to their 39.2 percent when they won by more than five.
This season is no different. When Duke was almost upset by Rhode Island, they shot 23.5 percent from beyond the arc and missed on thirteen attempts.
In their other games (when they won by 25, 31, and 43 points), Duke hit the long ball 37.7 percent of the time and missed an average of 9.3 attempts per game. That's a pretty drastic difference and a very similar story to last season.
So yes, it is possible to shut down the Blue Devils' game. Now onto the question of
will it happen?When the Wolverines faced the Bruins yesterday, Michigan forced seventeen turnovers and held them to 5-16 from three point range. The largest lead of the game was 10 by the Bruins, and this occurred with 1:53 left in the first half. Michigan cut the lead to six at the half, and opened the second half with a 10-2 run.
The rest of the second half was neck and neck, but Michigan outscored UCLA 32-23. More importantly, though, the Wolverines held the Bruins to 6-15 from two-point range and 2-7 from three-point range in the second half, while they went 8-12 from two point and 4-7 from beyond the arc.
If the Wolverines can play with the same explosive offense that they had last night while keeping Duke's three-pointers in check, they stand a very good chance at a second upset.
The question for the Big Ten underdogs then morphs into who to stop? The Blue Devils have four players averaging double figure points per game, have had three different high-scorers in their four games, and in each game have had four players score more than 10.
The most consistent player on the squad, though? Sophomore sensation Kyle Singler.
Singler is averaging a team-high 18 points per game, seven rebounds and three assists per game, and shooting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. When Duke struggled against Rhode Island, guess who struggled with the long ball. You guessed it. Singler. So far he’s missed 10 three-point attempts this year, half of them coming in the Rhode Island game.
These two teams faced off last year with Michigan looking to upset Duke in Durham. The Blue Devils were ready, stomping Michigan 95-67.
The key to the Blue Devils' success in that game? They drained 40.7 percent of their three-point attempts.
The Wolverines have evolved, though, and are not the same team from last year.
They are averaging one more steal per game, three more assists, and .6 less turnovers. Their two key players sophomore Manny Harris and junior DeShawn Sims have seen their stats increase as they’ve gained experience. They both could find themselves in the right position to shut down key Blue Devil plays and turn the game in Michigan’s favor.
So to answer the question, an upset, while by no means guaranteed, is very possible if the Wolverines can shake up Duke’s long game.
Whatever the outcome of the game tonight is, one team will be looking for redemption in two weeks when they face off in Ann Arbor on Dec. 6.
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