Monday night's game between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers in the Superdome will be a classic showcase of strength against strength.
Drew Brees, who is on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record, will lead the Saints' pass-happy offense against Green Bay's excellent pass defense.
Recent history and common sense tell us that great defense usually beats great offense, but Brees and his teammates in the pass offense are playing like no great offense has played in the history of the league. It all depends on how good the Packers pass defense really is.
Are their numbers against the pass (176 yards per game, good for third in the league) reflective of how good the players are? Or are they a sign of teams choosing to run against a porous run defense (147 yards per game, 27th in the league.)
I believe that the passing defense really is that good for Green Bay.
Yardage is unreliable when it comes to pass defense because it can be skewed by how much teams run against the same defense.
When assessing pass coverage, it's important to take into account interceptions, opponent quarterback rating, and opponent completion percentage.
Green Bay leads the league in all three categories with 16 picks. Opponents are completing less than 52 percent of pass attempts—which is almost incomprehensible—and have a rating of less than 60.
Brees has been having a season for the record books, but the Packers' pass defense is capable of limiting Brees and the Saints to well below their season averages.
While this matchup will be intriguing to watch, it will not decide who wins the game.
What the Saints do defensively will end up shaping the outcome. And the Saints generally don't do much defensively.
They rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of scoring defense (24.9 points per game, 24th), total defense (346 yards per game, 24th), pass defense (235 yards per game, 26th), and run defense (110 yards per game, 19th).
Count on a revived Packers unit to take advantage.
Ryan Grant finally had the kind of game that warrants a contract extension last week against the Chicago Bears, running for 145 yards and a score.
Aaron Rodgers finally got some protection last week from the offensive line and completed 23 out of 30 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns against a supposedly good Bears pass defense.
If the Packers can have an offensive performance that even halfway resembles what they had last week, they will win this game in New Orleans and take charge of their own destiny in the NFC North divisional race.
I think they will. Green Bay wins, 38-31.
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about 1 month ago
Sorry, I have to disagree about the Packers winning the game. I just dont see that as a possiblity when the Saints are playing at the Superdome. They are 3-1 at the dome this season witn the one lone loss stemming from the Vikings game that was decided by three points and the "kicks heard around the world" mistakes by Grammatica. Look for the Saints to get the running game and Thomas geared up, moving the ball at will. With the running game clicking it wil open the play action pass and Brees will hit everyone. I don't expect our defense to be able to stop too much of what thay are going to do, in the air, but I know on the ground we can shut down Grant limiting their time of posession. New Orleans pulls out the win 17-27. (Not to mention that Bush most likely will return and be on the field which means the defense has to watch him and play honest)
from about 1 month ago
don't apologize for disagreeing; that's what sports is all about. accordingly, i have to offer a rebuttal
it helps your home record when two of the three teams you've beaten there are oakland and san francisco. they did beat tampa in the dome, and green bay did lose to the bucs, but they played at raymond james, and aaron rodgers was knocked out for the end of that game due to a separated shoulder.
i also think you must have missed ryan grant against the bears last week. the bears run defense is far superior to that of the saints (ranked sixth in the league), and grant gashed them for 145 yards.
brees is a scary quarterback and a potential MVP, but the packers pass defense is probably the best in the league. and you know what happens when number one defense plays number one offense? number one defense wins. just like how good pitching always beats good hitting in baseball.
green bay is the best .500 team in the league, and they'll prove it down the stretch and strike fear into just about any team come playoff time. thanks for the comment.
about 1 month ago
Hate to say I told you so, but New Orleans came out with a renewed fire and dominated the Packers. I think its clear that after this game the Saints were the best 5-5 team going into the game. After the way they played their opponents have taken notice and if they continue to play like they did, I expect them to make the playoffs. Brees dominated the Packers secondary. and this time the number one offense beat the number one defense. Thanks for the friendly banter!
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