This basketball season, fantasy owners who have invested valuable draft picks in big-name rookies have been more than happy with the results. There has also been a handful of free agent rookies whom owners have benefited from.
Are these players just off to hot starts, or is this just the tip of the iceberg for the class of 2008?
The Big Three
Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and OJ Mayo have not disappointed; from the first week of the season, the big three have been constant producers and there are no signs of slowing. Many drafts saw the big three drafted between the seventh and tenth rounds, behind much lesser players.
Derrick Rose has started his team's first 15 games and has logged over 40 minutes in six of those games. Rose is ninth among point-guard eligible players in rebounds with 3.9 per game, he's shooting great percentages for a rookie, and he is below three turnovers per game.
As Rose grows, he will need to improve his 5.7 assists per game, and he is yet to break the double-digit assists mark. The sky’s the limit for the Chicago native, who is averaging 19.0 points per game.
No. 2 pick Michael Beasley has also been a full-time starter this season, and is averaging 14.8 points in 30 minutes per game. Beasley has shown the ability to hit the occasional three, and is shooting an average 45.1 percent from the field. He can improve upon that number.
I am disappointed that Beasley is not averaging one steal or block per game, because he is far too athletic to be a marginal defender. “B-Easy" is sinking his free throws at above 80 percent, and if he can get to the line more and get more involved in the open court, he could be an 18- to 20-point scorer alongside Dwyane Wade.
Critics claimed that OJ Mayo would be too small to get his shot off and that he is too much of a tweener to be a legitimate NBA shooting guard. But if there’s one thing Mayo loves to do, it’s to prove the critics wrong.
Fantasy owners who invested a draft pick in Mayo have been handsomely rewarded; 20.6 points and 2 threes per game while shooting 92.5 percent from the stripe is a great start to the season.
Mayo is seventh amongst point-guard eligible players in rebounds per game, but he needs to improve on his 2.3 assists per game while keeping his 2.6 turnovers per game in check.
Redshirt Rookies
Greg Oden and Marc Gasol have been the two most productive rookie centers this season. Their connection? Spanish-born Portland Trail Blazer Rudy Fernandez and the 2007 NBA draft.
Greg Oden has bounced back from his early season ankle injury nicely. He has season highs of 22 points, 11 rebounds, and four blocks. The Blazers are working Oden back into the starting lineup, and with 25-30 minutes per game, he should start producing double-doubles on a regular basis. Oden will struggle from the stripe, but he is efficient down low, shooting 51 percent.
Many laughed when Marc Gasol, the 48th pick of the draft, was thrown into the Lakers-Grizzlies deal for Pau Gasol. After a great Olympic effort, and 12 points and 12 rebounds in his first NBA game, only the Memphis front-office is laughing.
Gasol is a fearless, big-bodied center with a soft touch. He has shot 57.7 percent from the field and 77.4 percent from the stripe this year while averaging 12.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Gasol is more of an offensive player, only averaging 0.9 blocks per game, but for being a free agent pickup, he is a very good fantasy contributor.
The chants of "Rudy, Rudy" can be heard all through the Pacific Northwest when 24th pick of the 2007 draft Rudy Fernandez steps on the court.
Fernandez has electrified the Blazers with an offensive package very similar to Manu Ginobili, but better away from the ball. Fernandez is a 94.4 percent free throw shooter, and has made 42.0 percent of his 81 threes through 15 games.
He’s not a great rebounder or passer, but Fernandez will still come away with 1 steal in over 25 minutes of play. Keep an eye on his minutes when Martell Webster comes back into the mix, however.
The Next Best
The fourth and fifth picks in the NBA draft were good ones, too. Russell Westbrook has electrified the Thunder’s lineup with points, steals and assists. Kevin Love's minutes have seen some flux, but when he plays, he produces with points and rebounds. His field-goal percentage is awful, and we have yet to see his potent passing ability.
Second-round picks Mario Chalmers and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have been stellar as fantasy options. Chalmers has added 2.1 steals per game along with a few threes and assists. Mbah a Moute rips down an impressive 7.6 rebounds per game and one steal while scoring a respectable 9.8 points per game.
Since Jason Richardson has been out, D.J. Augustin has averaged 16.3 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 50 percent on his 20 three-point attempts. Before the injury, Augustin had had 4 double digit scoring games, and his MPG average will continue to rise.
Jason Thompson has given the Kings a third big man who can produce in the lineup. Through 16 games, Thompson is averaging 11.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per game; and has earned a starting spot while Kevin Martin is out.
Since earning a spot in the starting lineup, Brook Lopez has averaged 14.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game. These numbers could grow into a double-double average as Brook continues to get acclimated to NBA play.
Disappointments
The other half of the Lopez Twins, Robin Lopez, has been less than stellar through the Suns' first 13 games. Lopez, the best shot-blocker in Stanford history, has only swatted seven all year. He has shot an efficient 52.0 percent from the field, but needs to work harder to get defensive rebounds before he will be a regular for the Suns.
Before the season, there was a lot of hype surrounding NBA Summer League MVP Jerryd Bayless. With Fernandez, Oden, and Nicholas Batum taking up the rookie minutes, Bayless has only played in about a third of the team's games, logging 36 minutes and shooting 30 percent from the field.
Joe Alexander can jump through the roof, but after the addition of Richard Jefferson, and emergence of Mbah a Moute, Alexander is the odd man out. He shined in 31 minutes against Denver, but even with Michael Redd injured, Alexander hasn't cracked the regular rotation.
The New York Knicks listened to Mike D'Antoni and drafted Danilo Gallinari with the sixth pick of the draft. Having only scored two points on the season, it looks like he may be headed in for season-ending back surgery.
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about 1 month ago
what about George Hill
from about 1 month ago
Yes there are a few rookies who I left off the list. 3 straight 20 point games were impressive, but Manu is back and he will start to cut into Hills mins, when Parker comes back his mins will take a serious hit. Hill has showed he can play, and should remain a part of the rotation but I think he will have limited fantasy impact in 20 Mins of play.
Way to bring him up though, thats why the boards are here!
about 1 month ago
Robin Lopez wasn't expected to start this year. He was pretty much brought in as Amare's personal back-up. The way the Suns are, they kinda have that luxury.
I wouldn't say he's a disappointment. He's just never gonna have Brooke's expectations. He's the second best twin, the Hendrik Sedin-(hockey reference) but the Sedin twins play on the same team.
from about 1 month ago
I know he wasnt expected to start, but he was supposed to come off the bench and spell Shaq and Amare. He has had almost no impact this season. When he was drafted, the perception was that the Suns were getting a high energy defensive minded shot blocker. It's really his lack of blocks and mins that I am harping on. He will never be Brook, but he's going to be out the league if he doesn't produce. Plus if I'm going to do a Brook update, I have to do a Robin one too, you know so one doesnt feel left out.
Thansk for reading
about 1 month ago
I'm in a 14-team league, so most of these rookies got drafted at least by someone in my league. Unfortunately 2 of the ones I ended up with were Bayless and Alexander, who even in such aq deep league haven't warranted a roster spot.
The bright spot is I did draft Jason Thompson, who has been very impressive and I suspect he'll continue to get good minutes even if the Kings do get healthy. He's proved a lot of the doubters wrong who questioned the drafting of a player from Rider at number 12 overall.
It is amazing how much of an early impact all these guys have had. The past few years, you had to really push it to find rookies who were major contributors, but this year they have stepped right in and made an impact. Rose is a special player and will be among the league's elite point guards in no time.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah the class got a boost from those redshirt rookies, but even without them the class has been impressive. I agree that Thompson will continue to deliver. The Kings are running one of the most unique offenses this year with Hawes and Miller floating around the perimeter and it really creates mismatches for Thompson down low. I will admit, I questioned the big man from Rider.
I thought Luc Richard and Alexander may split time, but clearly MaM has been more productive. I've never been high on Bayless, I think he seriosuly lacks point guard skills, and he isn't an accurate enough shooter to be a scorer only. Agaisnt lesser talent he shines, I think the D-League would benefit him.
about 1 month ago
I drafted Beasley and Mayo.
Mayo makes me feel like a genius, but overall Im disappointed with Beasley. 14 ppg seems nice and is superb for a rookie, but in fantasy it doesn't make up for the fact that he hasn't been good really in any other area. He needs to start picking up his overall game. I don't care if he drops 10 ppg, as long as he starts shooting better, rebounding, playing a more defensive game.
Marc Gasol is an interesting story. I find it odd that really nobody would consider Gasol a great project when he's got Pau not only in his genes, but Im guessing that they work out and play together all the time and have done that for their entire lives. That fact plus his size should have made him a much higher prospect, it seems ridiculous that he wasn't.
from about 1 month ago
The fact that you drafted Mayo should make you happy in the duo. Beas needs to hit the glass harder, but I was really expecting more blocks and steals. He at least needs to get is FTA up to 6-8 per game. At least its promising that he has a lot of room to grow.
I saw an interview with Pau where he said they play one on one all the time and sometimes Marc wins. When your brother is an all-star caliber player, and youre the starting center on your national team that is full of amazing NBA talent, there is no reason for you to be scared. People joked about Marc when he was thrown into the trade because they were ignorant. Real NBA brains knew the Griz were getting some value. What if the Lakers still had him??? The word project is almost an insult for Gasol, he was NBA ready from the first game.
Thanks for the read and post.
about 1 month ago
I agree that Robin Lopez has been a huge disappointment so far into the season. He has not produced, and because he constantly picks up stupid fouls, doesn't get time to play. It's only been a few games into the season, though, so I'll let it go for now. I love Mayo, he may be my favorite rookie. He is just such a pure scorer.
from about 1 month ago
Im watching him start right now because Shaq is having one of those off nights. Suns are down 12, and most bigmen have killed the thunder this season. Robin has been decent (Amare is very disappointing (but he still dunks like a beast)). I want to see Lopez come in and be a contributor every night, not just against the Blunder.
I did a lot of vouching for Mayo before the season so I am happy to see him produce. People knocked him for his production at USC, but his game is just so NBA.
about 1 month ago
I drafted Michael Beasley and Rudy Fernandez really low and now I look like a genius. Both of them are beasts.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah in a few leagues I had a chance to pickup Rudy and now im kicking myself. I think Beas still has some room to grow. I would like to see what Rudy would do in a starting role. When Webster comes back if his mins fall think about packaging him in a deal while his value is still up.
about 1 month ago
I got OJ Mayo for ROTY at +575. I look like a genius at the moment.
Great article by the way John.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah I've noticed the public leagues I'm doing the best in are the ones that I have Mayo on the roster.
In a 12 team "friend league" my buddy draftet Rose, Mayo, Gasol, Chalmers, and Arthur. Hes second in the league behind me!
Just goes to show you the power of this years rookies.
I'm glad you liked it. You keep readin and ill keep writing haha.
about 1 month ago
I have Chalmers on my bench behind Chris Paul and "Super" Nate Robinson. He's been a decent addition. Beasley and Gasol have have been decent additions.
I had B-Lopez, but shipped him with Baron Davis, Yi Jianlian and Lamar Odom to nab D.J. Augustin-(now starting and averaging 21.0 PPG as a starter, and 10-19 from 3-PT land) Chris Kaman, Al Jefferson and Russell Westbrook.
I think Augustin could emerge as a Rookie of the Year kind of guy. Technically with Oden, Mayo, Rose, Beasley, Love, B-Lopez, and Augustin, this might be the best batch of rookies since the 84-85 season.
Jeff Green just moved to PF with our old buddy Durant as a SF, this could mean more value for Green owners.
from about 1 month ago
Augustin is fulfilling Jordans premonition for sure, if J Rich ever comes back he will move into the 6th man role, and will be a ROY candidate, but I don't think he'll be the winner unless he goes 20 and 10 for a couple of months.
Thats a nice trade your worked out, Odoms numbers are down this year and Kaman and Jefferson are two of the top centers.
It will be intresting to see this years rookies down the road.. are they a bunch of guys who hit their celeings early, or is this a batch of 4-6-8 all stars?
I would like Green to start producig more, I had him as a late pick in quite a few leagues, I still seee Durant as the SG and Wilkins as the SF, but either way if Petro is out its a good thing. How about this lineup next year Westbrook-Durnat-Green-Griffin-and a center to be named?
about 1 month ago
I like Robbie Swift as their C of the future. Honestly, I think he needs some playing time. I think he can be a force, or at least a Theo Ratliff or Joel Pryzbilla type of player.
I can imagine a Westbrook-D-Wade-(2010 free agent) Durant-Green-Swift team having NBA Championship hopes in 2010
from about 1 month ago
WHAT!!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!!?
I'm sorry but Swifty?? I have no faith in the 21 feet of crap the sonics drafted in a 3 year span. I think Swift is a mental case, and he has hardly played any basketball since getting drafted. WWE here we come. Witht he muscle hes put on I dont think he will be an athletic shot blocker like Ratliff, and I've yet to see him be a dirty work board banger like Pryzbilla. Im sorry, i really dont like the guy 1 bit.
Why would wade want to goto OKC? yes they have young talent, but its OKC! and the thunder will get a da good draft pick this year, and potentially next year too. I think either BJ Mullins or Griffin is coming to town after this season.
about 1 month ago
Wade and Durant are friends, OKC gets a winning season, it could happen. Honestly, Kirk Hinrich is probably a better fit and can be had this offseason for less cash
from about 1 month ago
Hinrich i could see, especially with he Collison connection. I have not looked int the Durrant-Wade connection, but I imagine they are friends in the same capacity that many of the NBAs young stars are (did you see the chris paul bowling classic?). I just dont see Wade in OKC as a media fit. I mean why does Bron want to goto NY? $$$$$
about 1 month ago
Kirk and Nick were awesome at Kansas, wait Kansas? I can't remember the school, but it might turn Nick into the C they need. Having your Robin, makes your Batman seem important again.
I had thought Durant and Wade trained together in the offseason. I might be wrong.
from about 1 month ago
Haha yeah it was kansas. Although They had a couple other great bigs (Gooden, and Simion) Collison was great there. I remember him being much more athletic back in the day. Now he gets 1 or 2 dunsk a year it seems like. I think Kirk could really be a plus for them. He bring some much needed outside shooting.
Im sure Durant and Wade hace hooped togeather, I just dont think Wade wants to goto OKC.. I think theres a better shot of us seeing Durant in Miami with Wade and Beas
about 1 month ago
I think Durant is gonna be a "stockton" in OKC. I don't see him leaving there ever.
from about 1 month ago
Hmm possibly.. I think he was the main reason PJ got the boot, so if he can be an integral part of the hiring process for the new coach then possibly. Durrant may remain with the franchise longer than the franchise remains, he may never leave and play in 3 cities.
about 1 month ago
I think OKC needs a Bobby Knight type coach. These kids can be a special team, who knows, maybe special in Vegas, lol
about 1 month ago
OKC could have a chance at someone, I guess, with all those free agents in 2010. I hate where they relocated to, though. OKC??? Why not Vegas?
from about 1 month ago
Well after Pacman made it rain in Vegas during the AS game I don't think the comish wanted a team there. Anywhere in the country woulda been better than OKC, but really they should still be in Seattle, thanks Starbucks.
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