I hate FSU. No team gets me angrier faster than FSU. However, it's worth a look at where they are while stifling that as best I can. Here goes...
Before the season began, I made a prediction that FSU would be a six-win team in 2008. I caught a lot of flak for saying that from some of the Bleacher Report commentariat who did not read the article, but I clarified at the beginning that I was talking about wins over I-A competition.
The Seminoles are sitting at 8-3 right now, with two wins over I-AA schools at the beginning of the year back when they were trying to get around the full brunt of suspensions from last year's academic scandal.
In other words, they have six wins over I-A competition—exactly where I saw them being. Since I expect to see a Gator win on Saturday, I think they'll finish the regular season that way.
I didn't get all the details of it right, though the end outcome was spot-on. For one thing, Christian Ponder has been a lot better than I thought he would be. On top of that, his mobility has helped FSU have a credible running game for the first time in years.
Some of that credit should go to offensive line coach Rick Trickett, since FSU's offensive line is entirely freshmen and sophomores. Some should go to Jimbo Fisher for creating an offensive framework for success in the ACC.
It's a bit early yet to say it's definitive proof that Fisher's the best guy to follow Bobby Bowden as head coach. It only proves that he's a better offensive coordinator than Jeff Bowden was, and I don't think that was ever in doubt.
Statistically, the Seminole defense has also been better than it was during the past two seasons' 7-6 records. The strength of that defense has often been cited as the key for FSU having a chance to pull the upset win on Saturday.
However, we've heard this before. We heard how LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina all were going to slow Florida down with their tough defenses, and they all didn't turn out to be that great at stopping the Gators.
- B/R Ticket Guide
I'll pull out the chart I made before the South Carolina game, updated to be current and including FSU both with and without its wins over I-AA teams included.
| Team | Yds/Game | Points/Game | Yds/Game net UF | Pts/Game net UF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 320 | 25.45 | 304.5 | 22.9 |
| Kentucky | 328.45 | 21.09 | 316.7 | 16.9 |
| Georgia | 308.36 | 23.82 | 301.9 | 21.3 |
| Vanderbilt | 317.55 | 19.82 | 307.1 | 17.6 |
| South Carolina | 280.36 | 19.27 | 256.5 | 15.6 |
| FSU | 272.64 | 18.55 | ??? | ??? |
| FSU, net I-AA | 295.44 | 21.89 | ??? | ??? |
As you can see, FSU's defense suddenly isn't quite as fearsome when you remove their demolishing of not just two I-AA teams, but two bad I-AA teams. It really is similar to the SEC defenses that Florida has been shredding ever since the Ole Miss loss.
I've seen where some FSU fans have tried to make the case that FSU's defense has more speed than any other the Gators have faced, but I'd love to see them tell that to Rennie Curran's face. It'd be awesome.
In short, no, FSU's defense is not materially dissimilar to any of the others that Florida has faced. The biggest difference is that it has a Rhodes Scholar on it, but nothing else stands out.
The Gators, meanwhile, play a little defense themselves. Here is a handy comparison of the two teams' defenses with the results of playing I-AA teams removed.
| Team | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Florida, net I-AA | 274.9 | 11.3 |
| FSU, net I-AA | 295.44 | 21.89 |
Florida is a full 10 points a game better and about 20 yards a game better. The first string defense hasn't given up a touchdown since the LSU game back on Oct. 11. The defensive line could be a little thin with starting DT Lawrence Marsh nursing a sprained MCL and backup DL Matt Patchan out, but the overall unit is very, very good.
If it sounds to you like I'm trying to make the case for another massive blowout, I'm actually not. For whatever reason, Florida never plays that well in Tallahassee. Steve Spurrier never won there, and even with FSU's downturn this decade, the best Florida has been able to do there is a win by seven.
Under Urban Meyer, two nine-win Florida teams have won the games in Gainesville by scores of 34-7 and 45-12. In Tallahassee with an eventual 13-game, national title winner, the score was 21-14.
I'm not closing the door on the possibility of a large win, as Florida has surprised me in just about every game since the Ole Miss loss in its ability to win and win big. The fact still remains that UF hasn't won in Tallahassee by double digits since a 10-point win in 1984, and you have to go back to 1972 to find a Florida win there by more than 10 points.
I think Florida has an excellent chance to score its first win by more than 10 points since the final year of Richard Nixon's first term because of they are focused on the task at hand. They are not looking ahead to Alabama, and they will be ready for this game.
That is important because I don't think FSU can beat Florida outright. The Seminoles will need help from the visitors in the form of turnovers or busted coverage on defense, as Ole Miss received. If Florida comes out sharp, they will win going away.
I still don't fully trust them, or any other Gator team for that matter, to absolutely win in a blowout in Tallahassee because it hasn't happened in my lifetime. However, the Gators have delivered Les Miles, Mark Richt, and Steve Spurrier their worst losses ever all in this season, a fact I never would have believed before the year began.
If there ever was a year to break a trend, this is it.
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about 1 month ago
If we see the ball spread around to the amazing Gator playmakers, I see a 24+ margin of victory on the low side... possibly 50+. If we see the Tebow-for-Heisman two-man offense resurrected from earlier in the season (I fear we will), we may be in for a long day at Doak... another squeaker if we're lucky.
from about 1 month ago
Joe, I admire your consistency and determination. ;-)
from about 1 month ago
Its not rocket science, Jon. If a D coordinator only has to gameplan his run defense for Tebow and Harvin out of the veer, he can contain Harvin (somewhat) and stop Tebow (2.6 ypc in the first half of the season).
If a DC tries to gameplan for three of four backs out of multiple Spread-Option formations (often changed on the fly a count or two before the snap), he's pretty much screwed. It becomes like herding cats for a DC. Lotsa luck to him.
In Meyer's press conference this week he said that assistant coaches are pressing him to make changes in the offense. He said, "if it ain't broke don't fix it". I hope that means that he will stick with the BG/Utah Spread that has been so successful since Mississippi... but the tinkerers are clearly waiting in the wings.
from about 1 month ago
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gators run the two-man offense out of multiple formations with shifts and motion where the other backs/receivers are just decoys. Of course, they are more effective as decoys if they actually get the ball some.
If the rain starts coming down, I expect to see heavy doses of Tebow and Harvin and a Gator victory.
Enjoy the game, Joe. Go Gators!
from about 1 month ago
The two-man has been the veer, mostly between the tackles and occasionally flipped outside on the option to Harvin. I realize that some posters have inferred that the veer (triple option) and the Spread Option are one in the same, but they are NOT... not even close. The veer is ONE formation that can be run out of the SO.
How's the weather in Tally? The NWB predicted light showers at most. Any change?
from about 1 month ago
The forecast? 100% chance of ass kicking.
I hope Harvin heals fast.
from about 1 month ago
Gotta love that National Weather Bureau... Three hours before kickoff they forcasted partly sunny with a 50/50 chance of light showers.
Harvin seemed to be moving around reasonably well on the sidelines. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I believe he'll be ready for Bama. Saw a quote from Mullen to the effect that Harvin was so solid in his grasp of the offense that he could rest the ankle all week and be ready to step in at the Dome... nice to hear that Mullen is at least that positive about the injury.
BTW, despite my past criticisms, Mullen did an unbelievable job calling the offense today. Really amazing.
from about 1 month ago
I was surprised to see them keep running the full offense considering the weather. After Demps fumbled I figured they would go conservative. I'm glad they didn't because it kept FSU on their heels and we ended up needing some long scoring drives as we weren't dominating field position like we have in other games. We actually had more TOP for once in a game: It was damn near 36 to 24 in favor of the Gators.
A couple of interesting Meyer quotes after the game:
"I was really concerned, because a big part of our game is speed, and I sat out there and just stared at that field as it started getting about two or three inches deep of water. I didn't want to throw it. But offensive coordinator Dan Mullen kept saying to me we'll just run the offense, because I panicked and was going to say single-wing all the way. But he said we can manage this thing, and he did and Tim did."
"If it was up to me, I probably would have run him 50 times"
from about 1 month ago
In that slop, I'd have run Tebow 50 times, too. Again, gutsy calls by Mullen, and a heroic effort by Tebow, Spikes and the O & D teams they lead.
about 1 month ago
I like how you downplay FSU's 2 wins vs weak teams... the Citadel was tough last week huh? I agree this could be a more than 2 td win for UF but pounding lsu, south carolina isn't a tough feat this year... your writing is very good, enjoyed the read
from about 1 month ago
There's a reason I took Florida's game against the Citadel out of their stats when I compared the two. I-AA games tell us nothing, unless the I-A team loses.
about 1 month ago
This one sets up to be an easy FSU cover. Way too many points and a Gator team who has benefited from some nice home field officiating. I wouldn't be too surprised to see an outright Nole win. Good Luck!
from about 1 month ago
"nice home field officiating"
In which games?
from about 1 month ago
7 wins in a row by an average score of 53-12 and you are griping about officiating?
My prediction: Florida 52 - FSU 17
from about 1 month ago
Hardly griping, they lost at home as a 25 point favorite and the heosman winner cried like a baby, let's see what they do on the road at the doak, not a plce where they have played well in the past.
from about 1 month ago
Correction, he cried like a baby then lived up to every word of his promise.
Florida State hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the Doak either.
Also, you misspelled Heisman. I guess it's hard to throw around a word that hasn't been seen in Miami for over 15 years.
from about 1 month ago
Hasn't UF covered every game except for the Ole Miss game? (and covered by large margins)
It is a mistake to think that this is the same team that lost to Ole Miss.
from about 1 month ago
Mitch, always hating on the SEC!
One day you'll come around, Mitch. By the way, I've got 14 riding on FL this week! Risky, but the way they've covered, I had to...
Speaking of the SEC, that Ole Miss team ain't so bad. Check their schedule. They were darn close to a 10-win season. They should finish 8-4. If they head to the Cotton Bowl, it should be a shootout.
The team to beat Ole Miss the most convincingly, you ask? The South Carolina Gamecocks.
from about 1 month ago
I don't hate the SEC, I hate teams that are over rated as the media force feeds them down our throats for their own self serving purposes of winning the game of getting a team which they have to cover for a month to have a large fan base which they gators are jjust what the doctor ordered, ever notice how ohio state is normally the team du jour and not so ironically almost any city you go to has a huge buckeye following.
I have backed a ton of SEC teams and even in some weeks have taken the gators, I took south carolina this week and have taken kentucky on a regular basis. everyone knows my favorite team is Miami, my second favorite is whomever I need to cover.
from about 1 month ago
Mitch, Florida has been taking care of business just fine, with or without the media hype. Why don't you hate on the media instead of hating on Florida? Besides, I would think you might want Florida to look as good as possible to shine up that Miami loss. ;-)
It feels so good to be so hated again. To paraphrase the OBC: if they hate you, then you must be doing something right.
Don't worry, Mitch. There is a chance that Miami won't suck in the next couple of years and might even get back to being hated.
I expect the Gators to cover in Tally. I look forward to comparing notes after the game.
from about 1 month ago
And Florida covers, again. Most points scored at Doak by a Gator team.
I know, I know...it was the officiating.
So how much did you lose on that Ole Miss vs UF game?
from about 1 month ago
I didn't lose anythng on the ole miss game,
congrats on the win.
about 1 month ago
The key to FSU winning this game is their offense not their defense. FSU has to have some sustainable drives to keep UF's offense off the field.
South Carolina's defense played pretty well aginst UF in the first half. Only allowed 7pts and forced two turnovers. Their problem was they turned the ball over and their offense couldn't stay on the field.
So if Florida State can move the ball they have a chance because their offense should hold their own.
about 1 month ago
Miami sucks. 'nuff said.
about 1 month ago
"Can Seminoles Slow the Gator Juggernaut?"
No.
Bowden quotes from the AP story:
"It was a good tail-whipping."
"I didn't think they would beat us like that here. The last time we had a beating like that was last year against them."
"They score so many points so fast that everybody gets out of their game plan."
"You're trying to catch up and you start doing things you shouldn't be doing."
from about 1 month ago
Ever get the feeling that Bowden has become a Gator fan? I don't mean that in a bad way. Clearly, Meyer has respect for Bowdwen's legendary career... As much football as Bowden has seen, I think it would be hard for him not to appreciate this remarkable Gator team.
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