Is it possible for last season's Heisman winner to be under the radar?
Because sure enough, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is.
Lost behind the aerial attack that has become known as the Big XII, Tebow is still producing—just not as well as he was in his Heisman season.
With the addition of a ground game, Tebow's productivity has decreased, but there are other reasons behind this. For the most part, Tebow hasn't finished all of his games. He usually exits around the third quarter, whereas Bradford, Harrell, and Co. usually play the full game.
No team in the Big XII, other than maybe Oklahoma, has a more balanced team than Florida does. The Gators are third in the nation in scoring defense, so at times Florida scores without even having Tebow and the offense out on the field. The Gators have also gotten contributions on special teams, returning a couple punts for touchdowns on the season.
With a great supporting cast, many have left Tim Tebow in the dark and hopped onto the Big XII bandwagon. It's even caught up with voters across the nation, as Tebow was left off of the Davey O'Brien short list (annual award for the best quarterback in college football) in favor of Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, and Colt McCoy—all quarterbacks in the Big XII.
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A closer look tells a tale that hasn't been told very often this season. Tebow has 20 touchdowns in his past five games, an average of four per game. Colt McCoy has 17, Sam Bradford has 21, and Graham Harrell has 22.
Tebow is capable of sticking with these quarterbacks consistently, so why was he left off?
Tim Tebow has 346 combined attempts, whether it be through the air or on the ground. McCoy, Harrell, and Bradford all have more passing attempts alone than Tebow's combined attempts alone. It's clear to me that Tebow would be just as good, if not better, than McCoy, Harrell, and Bradford if he had as many attempts as what they each have had.
Another interesting statistic is the fact that Tebow throws for a touchdown every 10.22 attempts, and rushes for one every 11. Colt McCoy throws a touchdown every 11.56 attempts, and rushes for one every 14.62. Sam Bradford throws a touchdown every 8.30 attempts, and rushes for one every 8.75 attempts (only 35 rushing attempts on the year). Graham Harrell throws a touchdown every 13.28 attempts, and rushes for a touchdown every 5.3 (however, Harrell has negative 43 rushing yards all season)
With that said, Tebow looks better on paper than some quarterbacks, and that's putting more statistics into consideration. Tebow and McCoy are the only ones on the list with more than 100 rushing yards.
Something else to look at is interceptions. Tim Tebow throws an interception for every 112.5 passes thrown, while McCoy's is every 49.57 passes thrown, Bradford's is every 58.16 passes thrown, and Harrell's is every 86.3 passes thrown.
Only Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas are in the top 50 overall in passes intercepted on the season out of the Big XII, so that makes those stats look even worse for Bradford, Harrell and McCoy, and that's without mention of the numerous ties which were found in the passes intercepted category among teams.
On note of the passes intercepted category, Florida has faced six opponents in the top 50 in passes intercepted. Since Tebow only has two interceptions all season, that goes to show that he's been just as good as his competition.
For a previous Heisman winner, he's not getting the respect and credit that he should.
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about 1 month ago
Scoring defense is points allowed, not points scored by the defense. I'm sure there is a stat for that too, though. Florida's defense is winning the field position battle though, and that keeps the non-scoring offensive stats down.
Tebow was a semi-finalist for The O'Brien and he'll be invited to New York for the Heisman. He's not underrated, in my opinion. Boise State's Kellen Moore, Utah's Brian Johnson, and Ball State's Nate Davis are underrated QBs.
from about 1 month ago
Really? I always thought scoring defense was points score by the defense... huh, thanks for informing me. I looked like an idiot all these articles!
from about 1 month ago
Its fine, dude. Scoring Defense happens to be my favorite NCAA football stat. I think it's the greatest indicator of how a defense is performing. Unfortunately, I can't find a stat for points by a defense. Florida has definitely scored more than a few points with the offense on the sideline.
about 1 month ago
Great article. You voiced many things I have wanted to say and wished someone would say it.
Another thing I think people are ignoring is that teams are focused on stopping Tebow more because of his running ability and this opens the running for his teammates. For this reason no QB makes their teammates as good as Tebow. He is also facing the toughest defenses. If anyone thinks McCoy would run the way he does in the Big12 in the SEC they are seriously deluding themselves. All these Big12 QBs are benefiting from this lack of pressure in the pocket, too.
Also, how can Tebow not get credit for his teams incredible offense? Tebow was accounting for something like 70% of his teams offense last season, something no one has done on that level. He did that because he had to fill the role of the QB and the primary runner at the same time, because he didn't have a consistent runner. Since the addition of Rianey and Demps this season, Tebow finally has some runners to take pressure off him and punish the defenses for swarming Tebow as they did more and more last season to this season knowing that Tebow didn't have other runners. Since the Gators got these runners going finally, after the Ole Miss game, the Gators offense has exploded.
So do people really think it is a coincidence that Tebow was carrying the entire offense on his back last season.. like no one ever did before. Then he gets some decent runners playing with him finally.. and all of a sudden the Gators are the most potent offense.. maybe ever? How can Tebow not be the Heisman when you consider that?
Tebow's only hope is that now that teams are being punished for defending Tebow so aggressively by Tebow's other runners, that defenses will finally have to guard Rainey and Demps allowing Tebow to dominate in these last 2 games. If defenses continue trying to take Tebow out of the game he will have no shot.. even if his team dominates and wins.
about 1 month ago
I agree with the article.
The scoring defense stat is a common misconception. (Just look at the rankings and it will all make sense: lower points = higher ranking)
about 1 month ago
Nice read. What I like the most about stats is that you can always slice them the way you want, but it appears you have NOT given the most basic of the stats and here they are (collected from SportsIllustrated)
Sam Bradford: 3684 Yds, 68.2% completion, 46 TD, 6 Int
Graham Harrell: 4308 Yds, 70.5% completion, 45 TD, 6 Int
Colt McCoy: 3573 Yds, 77.2% completion, 38 TD, 7 Int
Tim Tebow: 2459 Yds, 65.8 % completion, 33 TD, 2 Int
PS: Here “Yds” represents total yardage (passing + running + sacks).
These very basic stats indicate (albeit not conclusively) why most think Tim is not in the top 3.
from about 1 month ago
Whoa... STOP right there!
Your comment only tells half of the story. If you are going to give the YARDS, (clearly to show how behind Tebow is) then you must also present the attempts and the completions.
Harrell better have 4300 yards - he throws the ball 50 times a game!
Bradford and McCoy both pass way more than Tebow does as well.
There were a few games that Tebow only throw a dozen or less times the whole game (I mean, the whole 3 quarters that he played.) The blowouts for the Gators mean less throws and less plays actually on the field for Tebow.
Bottom line: Of course these guys have more yards than Tebow!
from about 1 month ago
I'd be interested in the average starting field position for UF. I watched the USC and UGA games and it seemed like they were always starting drives on the opponents side of the field. My point, Tebow appears to have less ground to cover on his way to a score.
Tebow is the best football player in the country, just not the best QB in the country. That's Bradford! If UF wins the NC, Tebow deserves another Heisman.
about 1 month ago
Good article! I wouldn't necessarily call Tim Tebow underrated though. Nate Davis is underrated.
This line answers your question...
"Lost behind the aerial attack that has become known as the Big XII, Tebow is still producing—just not as well as he was in his Heisman season."
from about 1 month ago
"Tebow is still producing—just not as well as he was in his Heisman season."
Tebow is producing what a QB is supposed to produce... WINS.
Who cares about producing stats when you have an SEC & National Championship in your sights. Football is a team sport. The most successful QB in the land will be (and was last season) the QB with the NC ring on his finger... NOT the guy with the Heisman popularity prize.
about 1 month ago
Great read. Very true. Don't forget Bradford, Harell and McCoy are throwing all those interceptions even though they are always way ahead in the games they play and never have to force throws into coverages to come from behind.
from about 1 month ago
I think you may have to reexamine your argument there. Wasn't it Graham Harrell leading Texas Tech to a victory in a back and forth game or did you forget about that?
about 1 month ago
Couple things folks.... first of all Bradford hasn't had to come from behind because he has played so well... also you forget to mention TCU and Cinci, they are very good defenses that OU has played this season (Cinci has a couple all-americans)... o.k. I lied three things... Bradford also doesn't play the fourth quarter. What good defense has Florida played this year?
from about 1 month ago
South Carolina was the third best defense in the nation. Florida nay-sayers claim the Gamecocks were overrated. The truth is Florida is completely unstoppable when they are playing well. Other SEC teams litter the top 25 and all but LSU and Arkansas are in the Top 50 in scoring defense. All but Arkansas are in the top 50 for total defense.
Texas is the only Big 12 defense occupying a spot in the top 50 in scoring defense and Oklahoma is the only Big 12 defense in the top 50 for total defense. TCU is legit. Cinci is pretty good, but to claim that Oklahoma's offense has been more tested than Florida's is a bunk statement.
about 1 month ago
Rankings are meaningless because teams are facing totally different schedules/competition. The SEC teams are massively underrated because they face far tougher teams game in and game out.
The other teams in college football are massively overrated because of the weak teams they face game in and game out.
The Buckeyes are a great example of this. Every year they are massively overrated because the competition they face is so poor and so overrated like they are. The Big12 is the same way. Due to everyone else being overrated. the SEC, which has brutal schedules, is over worked and underrated. Don't be shocked when the SEC team to go to the NC dominates the Big12 just like they did the Buckeyes the past 2 seasons. The SEC teams are also the most hunted, because they are the most high profile conference.
about 1 month ago
I am moderatey curious as to how you judge these SEC teams to be facing superior competition game in and game out. Quite frankly OU, Texas, Tech, and Okie State play in the toughest division in all of college football. And besides Florida, who has an offense in the SEC? Not LSU. Not Arkansas, nor do they have a defense. Ole Miss is pretty good. I laugh at S.C.'s offense, but their defense is excellent. Georgia is a joke. Kentucky... bahahaha. Tennessee... Eric Berry is their team. Miss. St. lol. Vandy well they were fun for a bit. Auburn very laughable. Alabam terrific defense (Florida hasn't played), offense ok at best. And Florida, only excellent team on the conference.
from about 1 month ago
You need to check the stats. 8 of Florida's opponents they've already played are currently ranked in the top 50 in total defense. Meanwhile, there aren't any in the top 50 from the Big XII conference. The article is about Tim Tebow, not about Florida's defense, so you can't really put that into perspective, as it doesn't have much to do with the article.
from about 1 month ago
So let's get this straight. Colt McCoy is running more than Tebow and passing more efficiently with less talent around him and you then extrapolate that Big12 teams are facing tougher competition than SEC teams.. even though the SEC has won the NCG the past 2 seasons? And Texas couldn't beat Texas Tech even though Texas Tech was killed by OU?
And then how about the fact the Big12 QBs never get touched in the pocket.. are you telling me all these Big12 teams have these incredible offensive lines.. even though the Big12 supposedly has great defenses just like the SEC or better?
Common sense should tell you what is going on here.. Big12 teams are massively overrated offensively because they play weak defenses.
It's likely due to there being parity in the SEC.. even though the SEC is far more talented than other conferences the talent distribution is evenly spread out. And the Big12 has a lopsided talent distribution even though the SEC is much more talented. And due to this, the Big12 teams can pad their stats against weak teams while the SEC beats themselves up against each other all through the season.
about 1 month ago
Meh scratch that Ole Miss... extremely impressed versus good competition, but they lose to terrible teams.
from about 1 month ago
Since when is Ole Miss a terrible team? They have two top 10 draft picks on the offensive (Oher) and defensive lines (Hardy). They have a former Texas QB - Jevon Snead.
They are 7-4, with their 4 losses coming by a combined 18 points. They lost to Alabama, the #1 team in the nation, by 4 points in Tuscaloosa.
Ole Miss is probably as good or better than Texas Tech.
about 1 month ago
Tebow, as well as the rest of the Florida offense, scares the lights out of opponents a week before games!! I never was so scared for playing Florida in my life, going into this years UGA vs. UF game.
It's kind of like Vick when he was in Atlanta. I think alot of teams overthink and overscheme because hes so difficult to stop.
You gotta play him like hes just any other quarterback.
The problem is though Florida's offense is incredible!! I would be suprised to see how Tebow did with a medicore team...even if he was at UGA i think he wouldnt be the same qb.
There isnt a single player on that offense you can stop with just one guy.
The game is played 11 on 11
You overfocus on someone, and someone else will bite you. Nearly impossible to defend!
But I definitely think Tebow psychologically imposes his will on you before the game even starts
about 1 month ago
Tim Tebow is about as underrated as a Heisman Trophy winner can get this year. Why? Because he hasnt been the entire offense for a team that finished in the top 12 last year. Last year Tebow WAS the Florida offense. This year there are plenty of others to take Tims load off. Why would Urban Meyer risk letting one of the best QBs in years get hurt by running the ball 30 times a game. He has already won the highest individual award in college football. To be honest he has a part of every award worth having that he is capable of winning.
SEC championship? Check.
National Championship? Check.
Maxwell Award? Check.
Davey O'Brian Award? Check.
James E. Sullivan Award? Check
Oh yeah theres that piece of junk award called THE HEISMAN TROPHY!! He is also the all time leader in rushing touchdowns by a QB.
But nope sorry Mr. Tebow because you cant match or exceed your recording breaking stats last year in your role as Florida's offense, We can simply not award you the trophy you so honestly deserve. An award going to the best PLAYER in college football must go to the ones to the highest stats because obviously if they have the highest stats they must be the best.
about 1 month ago
I found it strangely ironic that the award for the best quarterback doens't take into into account an integral part of the QB position, management. Being a QB is more than just throwing or running the ball. They make decisions on the field, they have to manage the game. Tebow has become one of the best game managers out of all the QBs.
It shouldn't be all about the stats, it should be the way they play their poisiton.
from about 1 month ago
Tebow's a gunslinger! Game managers are boring. Gunslingers do amazing things like completing a 13 yard shovel pass to a tight end running a curl route while getting tackled. Gunslingers throw with their other arm because their passing arm is currently occupied by a defender. Gunslingers stiff arm LaRon Landry and send him flying backwards.
about 1 month ago
This is a joke right? There's a reason why Tebow is not in the running. It's because Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell are all better than him. If you go by Colt McCoy he has 100 more yards rushing than Tebow and has over 1,000 more yards throwing. Tebow only has 22 touchdown passes.
Bradford has 42 touchdowns, Harrell 39, and McCoy 30. Tebow as you said has been taken out in the 3rd quarter because of the score in their games. Could the reason be that Florida has played the weaker schedule? The answer is yes! Out of Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas they all have played tougher opponents all year. There's your answer. It's because let's see LSU is having a down year, Miami is decent but nothing special, Hawaii sucks, Tennessee sucks, Florida lost to Mississippi who has come on strong recently but should have been won by Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, only teams that had solid talent Georgia and that's about it. Oh and playing Citadel that's a joke too!
Texas had a run of playing number 1 Oklahoma, number 11 Missouri, number 7 Oklahoma State, and number 6 Texas Tech.
Texas Tech had a run of playing number 19 Kansas, number 1 Texas, number 8 Oklahoma State, and number 5 Oklahoma.
Oklahoma had a streak of playing number 24 TCU, a break in the action to play Baylor, then number 5 Texas, and number 16 Kansas, a break for a few weeks and then played number 2 Texas Tech, and now this week playing number 11 Oklahoma State.
Sorry I hate to break it to you but Tebow is highly overrated. The only way Florida even earns anything is if they beat Alabama, but it still doesn't take away that Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State have played a harder schedule.
There are plenty of other quarterbacks who are having a better year than Tebow, in the Big 12 Chase Daniel, Todd Reesing, and Zach Robinson.
The Big 10 Darryl Clark .
Mid America (MAC): Tim Hiller, Nate Davis, and Drew Willy.
SEC: Matthew Stafford
Conference USA: Case Keenum, Chase Clement, David Johnson, and Trevor Vittatoe.
Mountain West: Max Hall
from about 1 month ago
Note to Steven, this award is for the best player not the biggest stats. Something which is apparently being forgotten. I would bet you if McCoy, Harrell, or Bradford got hurt by playing 4 quarters and being up by 40 points that the coaches would be kicking themselves for not following Meyers lead and letting the main gear of the engine take a break.
As far as ablilty goes there are few in Tebow's league. If anyone thinks for a moment that Tebow wasnt capable shatter his previous season's recording breaking stats you are either smoking the good stuff or a utter moron. I am saying once again that there is no reason for Tebow to play 4 quarters of football and risk being injured when he really didnt need to be in the game just to put up monster stats.
from about 1 month ago
Steven, check the facts before you post.
FACT: Florida plays a tougher schedule than every Big 12 contender except for Texas. (and that is not even counting the fact that Florida has to play 11-0 Alabama - which if they win, Tebow clearly will have faced the toughest schedule of all the Heisman contenders).
Want proof? Check the NCAA site: Under the heading "Toughest Schedule"
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2008/Internet/toughest%20schedule/9games_cumm.pdf
from about 1 month ago
Steven,
Did you read the article at all? 8 of Florida's opponents on the year are in the Top 50 total defense. The names might look bad, but a look at the stats tells all. Playing The Citadel is a joke, huh? Texas Tech played Eastern Washington and Massachusetts, last I checked those are two FCS Opponents. Texas has played a schedule of all D-I opponents, as has Oklahoma, but neither of the two have played tougher defenses statistically than what Florida has played.
I could compare stats to all Quarterbacks you've named and Tebow would be the best. I fail to see a point in anything you've said at all.
about 1 month ago
you mean the most overrated QB in the country if you're talking about Heisman material
from about 1 month ago
Yes.
from about 1 month ago
Did I say anything about the Heisman trophy? No.
I was discussing why he was dropped off for the Davey O'Brien shortlist, which is for the best Quarterback in the country. The Heisman was tied in, but wasn't the theme of the article. Maybe if you had read the article, you'd know.
from about 1 month ago
Even for the Davey O'Brien for best quarterback in the country Tebow is still overrated as an O'Brien finalist. Again the stats mentioned above and Florida's season of playing mostly patsies.
about 1 month ago
Compare the Big 12 QBs to each other and then compare Tebow to the other SEC QBs and you will see why Tebow stands out more:
Tebow's QB rating is 175.2 - the next highest SEC QB is Stafford (the top pro prospect) at 149.0
Bradfords QB rating is 193.8 - the next highest Big 12 QB is Robinson (who is getting no Heisman love) at 178.0.
Tebow leads his conference in passer rating by 25, Bradford leads his by only 15. Also, the Big 12 has 4 QBs who have a passer rating higher than 170. That shows you that anyone (even skinny weak armed guys like Harrell) can be a good passer in the defensively inept Big 12.
Bottom line: the weak defense in the Big 12 makes average passers look great. Bradford and Robinson, by no coindence, are the two best pro prospects in the conference and the two leaders in passing efficiency. McCoy and Harrell are good college QBs who look great because no one in the Big 12 can defend the pass.
about 1 month ago
Also what are the 6 teams that are in the top 50 in interceptions that has Tebow has played against? Hawaii, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky.
Well here's the reason why the teams are in the top 50 interceptions wise. Their defense is on the field longer than their offense is. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and South Carolina are in the bottom half of the offensive categories. Again meaning more time on the field for the defense.
Mississippi the team that beat Florida is a middle of the road defensive team and offensive team. The one thing about Mississippi is that it's hard to run on them, but they give up a lot of yards through the air meaning more teams will throw on them which gives them more shots at interceptions.
Hawaii is hardly a good defensive team either. They give up points almost 29 a game, Hawaii has given up a ton of yards through the air and on the ground.
Really your argument doesn't really have much merit to stand on because those teams that are in the top 50 in interceptions aren't really that solid defensively.
from about 1 month ago
Steven - Florida has played a stronger schedule than every Big 12 contender except for Texas (and by the time Florida plays Bama, they will have played a stronger schedule than even Texas).
about 1 month ago
I think it is a very good thing that Tebow doesn't have to carry as much of the load this season.
Let the Big12 QB's get all the attention and win all the hardware. Good for them. They have had impressive seasons. Besides, Tebow won the Heisman last year and he's got bigger fish to fry this year.
about 1 month ago
"Sorry I hate to break it to you but Tebow is highly overrated."
i don't know what team Steven cheers for, but i sure hope they get to play florida in the national championship game. maybe you have to actually face tebow and receive your whuppin' to realize how much better he is.
florida fans could care less if tebow wins another heisman. let's see the big 12 beat us head-to-head.
about 1 month ago
Lets even the playing field by gauging everything by how often the quarterback's number is called. Some teams have better running games, some have stronger defenses, some quarterbacks don't play entire halves of their games. Let us look at the numbers divided by Pass Attempts.
Player (Comp%)(YDS/ATT)(ATT/TD)(ATT/INT)(ATT/RTD)
Bradfd (69.5%)(12.0 YDS)(9ATT/TD)(43ATT/INT)(68ATT/RTD)
McCoy (77.6%)(9.2 YDS)(12ATT/TD)(54ATT/INT)(38ATT/RTD)
Harrell (71.5%)(8.4 YDS)(14ATT/TD)(81ATT/INT)(95ATT/RTD)
Tebow (65.0%)(9.3 YDS)(10ATT/TD)(123ATT/INT)(21ATT/RTD)
Doing a Broda Count (4-3-2-1), weighting each of these 5 statistics equally, you get:
Tebow 15 (2 first place)
Bradford 13 (2 first place)
McCoy 13 (1 first place)
Harrell 9
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