Then again, he could be the second coming of Scott Mitchell.
This is the difficult talent assessment that must be made by general managers whose franchises are seeking new starters in 2009.
At a position where elite talent is rarely available in free agency, Cassel is the most intriguing quarterback set to hit the market. Since Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week One, Cassel has shown marked improvement while directing New England to a 7-4 record.
Cassel became only the fifth quarterback in NFL history to post consecutive 400-yard passing games during last Sunday's 48-28 victory at Miami. He has size (6-foot-4, 230 pounds), athleticism (84 rushing yards in the past two games) and a strong arm.
"He's really proving himself being his own guy," Miami nose tackle Jason Ferguson told Dolphins media before the game. "He's not the replacement of Brady. He's got his own name."
If he continues to shine the rest of this season, Cassel could very well command a Brady-like contract with at least $20 million in guaranteed money. But before paying him like the NFL's top-tier quarterbacks, interested teams must be convinced that Cassel can thrive outside of New England.
Mitchell is proof that such an assessment isn't easy.
Fifteen years before Cassel picked apart the Dolphins defense, Mitchell was enjoying similar success playing inside the same stadium. When Dolphins legend Dan Marino ruptured his Achilles' tendon in Week Five of the 1993 season, Miami turned to a replacement who had attempted just eight passes in his first three NFL campaigns.
Mitchell played surprisingly well—well enough to prompt some fans and media to speculate that he may be a better long-term option than Marino. The Dolphins weren't fooled. Detroit was, signing Mitchell during the 1994 off-season to what was then considered a major free-agent contract (three years, $11 million).
Mitchell had his moments during five Lions seasons-including a 4,338-yard, 32-touchdown effort in 1995-but he never led the team to a playoff victory even with Hall of Fame rusher Barry Sanders in the same backfield.
Just as damning, Mitchell didn't possess many of the other qualities expected from the position outside Xs and Os.
"He was never the quintessential leader," a former member of Detroit's front office said. "He didn't have a presence about him. He couldn't bond with the guys. The guys didn't believe in him."
Cassel's leadership skills will come under heavy scrutiny by potential suitors. He has the luxury of being a foot soldier on a veteran Patriots roster that has reached four Super Bowls with Brady. Cassel must be a general elsewhere, especially if he joins a lesser squad that hasn't come close to hitting those heights.
The expectations will be much higher than when Brady was initially replaced by Cassel, whose last start had come in high school. How will the 26-year-old Cassel respond to even more intense scrutiny? Can he thrive in a different kind of offense than what the Patriots run, especially if he doesn't have the services of exceptional wide receivers like Randy Moss and Wes Welker?
When he was Miami's general manager in 2004, Rick Spielman tried making those same projections about A.J. Feeley, who had shown promise in his five career starts for Philadelphia in 2002. Spielman did extensive film study comparing Feeley to six other quarterbacks who were potentially available via trade or free agency as well as the three incumbents on Miami's roster (Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese and Sage Rosenfels).
Trying to identify traits in emerging quarterbacks, Spielman dissected Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Delhomme both before and after all three ascended to starting roles. Spielman even did specific statistical analysis, like how the quarterbacks he was scouting fared when leading or trailing by a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
And he was still wrong.
Spielman traded a second-round pick to Philadelphia for Feeley and signed him to a five-year, $18 million contract. Both proved huge mistakes.
Feeley had starting-caliber physical skills but sorely lacked other intangibles. He didn't inspire confidence in his teammates. The comfort Feeley had in Philadelphia's West Coast-style scheme wasn't there, nor was the same quality of coaching or offensive talent surrounding him.
On and off the first-team offense, Feeley was 3-5 as a starter for a Dolphins squad that finished 4-12. The following year, Feeley was traded to San Diego. He has since returned to Philadelphia and is currently a third-stringer.
"The unknown part of the quarterback is the 'It' factor," said Spielman, who is now Minnesota's vice president of player personnel. "You take a chance because you see the numbers and the ability on film. That's objective, not subjective...But do they have that magnetism, that quality where they can lead a group of 10 other men when the offense is on the field? Unless you've been with those guys before, you don't really know that until they get there."
A general manager who has closely studied Cassel believes he won't be a one-year wonder. Warner and Brady proved otherwise as well.
"It's a gamble and a lot of money will be invested in Cassel," the general manager said. "But I truly believe that he has the full package."
The gift wrapping will be off soon enough.
This article originally published on FOXSports.com. Click hereto see the Top 10 free agent QBs for 2009.
For more for Alex's columns, click here.
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about 1 month ago
Scott Mitchell? The lefty Dan Marino? Wow...I hadn't thought of him in years....
about 1 month ago
Nice article man. Oh and my dad and I actually played a pickup basketball game with Scott Mitchell once when we traveled down to Utah he was there for whatever reason, he may have been good enough to make the NFL but he's a horrible basketball player. lol
from about 1 month ago
Looked it up and now I know why he was there he went to Springville High, so my dad must've played HS ball against him. Interesting.
about 1 month ago
I thought Mitchell would be a bust when he left Miami years ago. I think Cassel is the real deal at this point and from what I've seen from him this season. But then again, only time will tell. Put any play, esp. a QB with a team as lousy and Detriot, they are almost set up for failure.
about 1 month ago
I havent really jumped on the Matt Cassel train just yet. I think that he's having a good year, but I don't think he's going to be an elite QB in the league after this year. This does not mean I think he is going to be a bust, I think he'll turn out to be a decent QB at best. It's mainly because not many teams looking for a QB have people like Moss and Welker.
about 1 month ago
Playing for the Patriots is a high pressure job all by itself, so stepping in for an injured Brady and having a a suspect defense riddled with injuries turns the heat up that much more. Cassel has made the most of his chance this year. He improves every game, and he is a far better athelete than Brady. I don't see the Pats with more than a victory or possibly two more with Brady at the helm. That secondary is not doing well this year on third downs and just in general. Cassel will do well regardless of where he ends up. Does that mean playoffs? Yeah he has Welker and Moss but every winning team has a strong cast to surround the qb. Tom Brady had the benefit of a superb defense the years he won it all.
about 1 month ago
I think everyone should just wait a second. See, look at Derek Anderson last season. He did superb his first 8 starts, but by week 14 or whatever, the NFL caught up to him and this season he was benched. Being a Pats fan, I hope Cassel is the real deal, and how great would it be if he takes us to Tampa, but I think some of his success also has to do with the Pats offensive line. It isn't as great as it has been since last year's AFC Title game against Diego, and don't get me started on the Superbowl's pass protection, but the Pats offensive line usually gives Cassel plenty of time to find the reciever. Let's say Cassel went to Detroit, who has no line. Cassel in Detroit would probaly be much worse than the Cassel in New England, even though Detroit has a similar reciever to Randy Moss, named Calvin Johnson just because Detroit has an awful O-Line,
about 1 month ago
I would like to see how Cassel does after D-coordinators have a year's worth of film on him. Opposing coaches didn't even have college film on him to notice any habits or tendencies.
about 1 month ago
ugh Scott Mitchell. I remember him. Actually the one memory of Mitchell that sticks out in my mind more than anything else, was him throwing an interception in overtime that was returned for a touchdown against Cincinnati. That game cost us a playoff spot.
I like Cassell because he was a low 7th round pick, and not some hotshot 1st rounder big head star. He works hard and strives for improvement. And he has size and skill. Good intangibles, good athleticism. Good upbringing on a good team.
If Detroit wants to take a look at Cassel, I sure won't object.
about 1 month ago
Rex Grossman can throw back-to-back 400 yards game in the Patriots system.
Anywho, Cassel is the real deal. If it aint broke, don't fix it. Trade Brady for 4 first rounders. Then you can build a defense.
And hey, when you have a top 5 defense and a mediocre offense ( though cassel is lighting it up), a superbowl is a very real possibility.
Right now, with or without Brady, they aint gonna get back to the superbowl again, their defense is still too crap. OUt of the last 15 superbowl winners, only 1 did not have a top 5 defense and that was the Colts.
Trade Brady. Build a Legit Top 5 defense, and not a fake offense aided defense like the 2007 Brady Patriots. = SUPERBOWL appearance.
from about 1 month ago
I highly doubt Brady gets traded. He's only a few years older than Cassel for one.
One quarterback has had 1 good year. The other has won 3 superbowls and has won an NFL MVP award.
secondly, no team in their right mind would give up 4 first round draft picks for one player, even if it is Tom Brady. That's ridiculous.
OK, lets assume Detroit, who has two first round picks is interested (I hope not) If they traded both picks to New England, they'd still probably have to offer another player like Leigh Bodden, Ernie Sims, Kevin Smith, or Calvin Johnson. Its not happening.
Cassel will go. Brady will stay.
about 1 month ago
You never know though. Maybe Brady's injury is more serious than the Patriots lead on. Injuries have never been correctly reported in NE.
Brady has had only one good year too. 2007 NFL MVP year which ranks among thet top 5 best quarterbacking years ever.
Other than last, hes only ever got 22 Tds in a season. His Superbowl years were solid game managing and great work in the clutch. His defense did the rest.
My thinking is this: If the Patriots are ever gonna win a superbowl again in the forseeable future, its gonna be with great stifling defense and a offense that can get it done. They don't have to score 50+ points a game like in 2007, but probably 24 a game.
about 1 month ago
The only possible way for brady to hav been traded to Detroit, before, or after this season, is if Matt Millen were still running things. sadly, 4 first rd picks for brady would be considered millen's best gm move...
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