The Packers have their backs to the wall after the loss to New Orleans Monday night, and they are facing one of the six teams in the league who came into the week with eight wins.
Good thing it is still not a must win. Oh, it's pretty close, but if the Packers lose Sunday, they still likely would win the division if the won their last four games.
And that is not that unlikely, since their final four games are against Jacksonville, Houston, Chicago and Detroit. Only the Bears have a winning record, and that game will be on the road, but the Packers dominated the Bears in their first match-up last November 16, 37-3.
Nevertheless, the Packers are already in a hole, and another loss puts them deep enough that they may not get out. I am reminded of one of my favourite lines from a movie that runs every few weeks on TNT, including this weekend,
Fellowship of the Ring: "The quest stands on the edge of a knife—move but a little, and all is lost."But how do the teams match-up?
Scoring and intangibles: slight edge (+1), Green Bay
Green Bay ranks fifth in the league in scoring with an average of 27.5 per game, but ranks 22nd in points against with an average of 23.6. While that is still a net advantage of 3.9 points per game, it is lower than Carolina's 5.4 point advantage; Carolina scores 23.6 (22nd in the league) but gives up only 18.2 (7th in the NFL).
The Packers are +5 in turnover margin, while the Panthers are +4. The Packers get more big plays from their turnovers: they have nine touchdown returns, the Panthers one. Thus, the turnover potential favours the Packers. However, the turnovers and scores factor into the scoring averages above, making this advantage minimal for Green Bay.
The game is in Green Bay, and the Packers play better at home (3-2) and the Panthers (2-3) are an average road team, mitigating the scoring edge for Carolina. Thus, we need to determine this game based on the individual unit match-ups:
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about 1 month ago
I want to say the Packers will win, but it just seems too tough.
We are at Lambeau and our secondary could bait Delhomme into some mistakes, but Williams and Stewart are probably going to have a huge day against our run defense.
I think we can keep it close, but the Panthers offense is so balanced that I don't think we can win.
from about 1 month ago
I really think the season hinges on tomorrow, and I think we are very much a threat to win that, but I'd just say less than 50%. Even though I can see us winning the last four, I think it's mathematically unlikely: I give Chicago about a 50% chance, Jacksonville a 25%, Houston a 10%, and Detroit a 1% chance, and .5 x .75 x .9 x .99 = only about a 1 in 3 chance of winning out. Even if we beat Chicago, they will finish with at least nine wins, so we have to win four of our last five.
about 1 month ago
If the Packer lose they will be 2 games behind the Bears/Vikings winner with 4 to go and i don't think they are that good to win out and the other 2 teams that bad to lose 3 out of 4. Go Panthers
from about 1 month ago
Pack would only be behind one of them by two games, and if they win out they'd own the tie-break. Thus, the winner of the Bears-Vikes Sunday would have to go 2-2 and the other go 3-1 for the Pack to still win the division.
Let's say the Bears win Sunday--they'd have one loss against the Pack (again, if we win out, which I'm saying is only about 1 in 3 to happen) and would only have to lose to the Saints, Jags, Niners, OR Texans, and I think they would lose to the Saints.
Let's say the Vikes win. The Packers would knock the Bears out if they won that game, and the Vikes would only have to lose two of the following: Giants, Cardinals, Lions (who they might have lost to were it not for a controversial call IN Minnesota), or Falcons. They almost certainly lose two of those.
If we beat Carolina, we WILL win the division. Unfortunately, I obviously don't expect that to happen. Right now, I give the ratio of chance for each team as 3:2:1 Bears:Packers:Vikes.
about 1 month ago
I think Green Bay wins in a route. Their special teams will come up with a big play to spark the scoring fest.
from about 1 month ago
I love your optimism, but no way we rout them--at best, we cover the spread by a TD.
about 1 month ago
HMMM looks like that special team play he was talking about didn't show up today it was still a great gaME TO LISTEN TO ON Sirius Sat. Radio but a great play by Smith was the difference. Good Luck Packers fans i hope you do win out
from about 1 month ago
It was a great game, as I expected, but another two injuries for us--this is freakin' ridiculous, and not just bad luck. Losing this many players has to be because of something we are or are not doing, and when another DB goes down, that affects our ability to cover. Without that, maybe we win.
You guys are in--if you go 2-2, it's a sure thing, even if you go 1-3 (unlikely with your talent and remaining schedule), you're probably still in.
about 1 month ago
Special teams for the Panthers came through with big returns in the 4th quarter. The slow start hurt the Packers again. Two 3 & outs, and three punts to start the game hurt. That loss hurt.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, I knew as soon as we gave up that big return we were dead. We keep finding new ways to lose, and the Rodgers-haters just keep heaping it on him.
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