As we go into the final week of regular season and conference championship games, the BCS pictures is becoming clearer, but there are still a few unknowns.
It appears that the SEC will send two schools, Florida and Alabama, as will the Big 12 (South), Oklahoma and Texas. Missouri beating Oklahoma in the championship game changes everything, but for now assume that longshot won’t happen.
The Pac-10 sends USC, the Big Ten sends Penn State, The Big East sends Cincinnati, and the ACC sends the winner of Boston College and Virginia Tech.
Utah gets an automatic bid (MWC champion and ranked higher than #12). Boise State does not get an automatic bid for wining the WAC because only one automatic bid can be given to C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt collectively. BYU, TCU and Ball State are all ranked to low for consideration.
This leaves one slot open for either Ohio State or Boise State.
How do you decide between a 12-0 WAC champion and a 10-2 Big Ten co-champion? Let’s look at it from a few angles.
Quality Wins
Boise State has only one quality win this year and it was an early season, non-conference game.
At #17 Oregon 37-32 (Sept. 20)
Ohio State has three quality wins this year, all against Big Ten opponents. They also have two losses, though both to Top 3 teams.
At #18 Wisconsin 20-17 (Oct. 4)
At #20 Michigan State 45-7 (Oct. 18)
At #24 Northwestern 45-10 (Nov. 8)
Loss at #1 USC 3-35 (Sept. 13)
Loss to #3 Penn State 6-13 (Oct. 25)
Clearly Ohio State plays a much tougher schedule than Boise State does. The Big Ten has gotten a (deserved) bad rap the past few years for being weak, but even so, it is a much tougher schedule to play than the WAC.
Quality Wins goes to Ohio State.
BCS Bowl Performance
Ohio State has played is 4-2 in BCS bowl games with an average TV viewership rating of 14.72. Ohio State fans travel in droves, which guarantees a sell out no matter when or where they play a BCS bowl game.
· 1998 Sugar Bowl: (4) Ohio State 24, (6) Texas A&M 14
· 2002 Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State 31, (1) Miami 24, 2 OT [TV rating 17.2] – National Champions
· 2003 Fiesta Bowl: (5) Ohio State 35, (10) Kansas State 28 [TV rating 8.7]
· 2005 Fiesta Bowl: (4) Ohio State 34, (6) Notre Dame 20 [TV rating 12.90]
· 2006 National Championship Game: (2) Florida 41, (1) Ohio State 14 [TV rating 17.40]
· 2007 National Championship Game: (2) LSU 38, (1) Ohio State 24 [TV rating 17.40]
Boise State has played in one BCS bowl game, which they won with a TV rating of 8.40. Boise State fans don’t travel in the same numbers as Ohio State fans, but that might change after the unforgettable 2006 Fiesta Bowl.
· 2006 Fiesta Bowl: (8) Boise State 43, (10) Oklahoma 42, OT [TV rating 8.40]
BCS performance (including TV viewership and “butts in the seats”) goes to Ohio State.
Rankings
Boise State ranks No. 9, ahead of Ohio State at No. 10 in the AP Ranking, The BCS Ranking and my own KPI.
AP Ranking
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
BCS
9. Boise State .7034
10. Ohio State .6340
KPI (Kraus Performance Index)
9. Boise State 47.72
10. Ohio State 47.48
Rankings go to Boise State.
Conclusion
This is nearly a toss up. I think for many people the argument is Ohio State has stunk it up two years in a row and Boise State’s only BCS performance was one for the ages. Conversely, many people feel that one “BCS Buster” per year is enough, and Ohio State is the better team and the better choice.
BCS chooses Ohio State.
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about 1 month ago
GO BOISE STATE!!!!
I feel the BCS rankings should determine it.
from about 1 month ago
I have to agree with you, but sadly it does come down to money when selecting the teams that aren't guaranteed a spot.
If the rankings are accurate then they should be able to just go down the list and take them in order.
Honestly, as a huge Buckeye fan, I'd rather go to the Capital One Bowl and play Georgia rather than have to play Oklahoma or Florida in a BCS Bowl game.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah the flexibility was put in to give the edge to a powerhouse program in just this situation. Its too bad though because Boise State is a lot more fun to watch than the read option QB scramble fest that Ohio State's offense has been this year. Terrelle prior against a quality D might be interesting. OH WAIT, now I remember, its boring as HELL. (USC PENN STATE)
So we get the buckeyes again. At least this time its not on January 8.
from about 1 month ago
Its shitty an undefeated team might get bumped out by a 2 loss team but until theres a playoff it will be this way every year GO BUCKS
from about 1 month ago
I hear you Beau. This whole BCS thing is really just set up to match the top two schools. After that it about the money. Sad.
about 1 month ago
Quality wins, tougher schedule...IN THIS SEASON, 2008...that says it all.
about 1 month ago
Playoff!!!
03) Texas v. 11) TCU @ Glendale
09) Boise v. 10) OSU @ New Orleans
Play this weekend for 2 at-large spots. Utah and the best of the rest after this weekend get the other two spots.
from about 1 month ago
Good call. I'll take Texas and OSU in those matchups.
I'd love to see play in games for the at large spots.
about 1 month ago
I give this game to Ohio State. Being from Jeannette, PA. the hometown of Terrelle Pryor and watching him play with the Jayhawks all his career. Terrelle Pryor hates to lose big games and this being one of those, I know Terrelle will come out and get the job done. Buckeyes win 28 to 17.
about 1 month ago
Here you go Doug.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/87861-fbs-playoff-series-two-teams
If we can replace No. 20 Missouri with No. 3 Texas for the Big 12 Championship game then we can give Texas Tech the play in game versus TCU.
I also think Ohio State would have the advantage in a head-head matchup. I'd like to see the game regardless of the outcome.
about 1 month ago
I think Boise State should go as both huge televised and promoted games OSU played in they lost and badly.
from about 1 month ago
I sort of agree with you Andrew. Give Boise State another shot at Oklahoma. I think people would love to see that rematch as the first one was awesome. I think OK would kill them, but then I thought that the first time around and look what happened.
On the flip side,... do you discount Ohio State's 4 BCS wins? I'd love to see a rematch of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, but I'm sure ND has already been declared National Champs by somebody.
about 1 month ago
Like it or not Ohio State will go to most likely the Fiesta Bowl because the Fiesta Bowl knows Ohio State travels there well and, excluding the '06 fiasco, they play well there. What it boils down to is that Ohio State has a solid fanbase that 1. will boost ratings and 2. will make the BCS more money than Boise State. The BCS does not place teams in bowls because they are a better team, look at Kansas over Missouri for the Orange Bowl last year, it is to get money.
Great article Doug. 5 stars.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Austin.
Sadly, you are right. They have to put 1 against 2, but they have a lot of leeway from there to make match ups that are the best for revenue, not necessarily the most fair.
about 1 month ago
Without a doubt, going undefeated, regardless of the schedule, is a hard thing to do in a college football season. An accomplishment like that must be recognized and awarded and thus, Boise State should be given the nod.
from about 1 month ago
No matter what the competition, going undefeated is very difficult. Look at USC. They are way better than anyone in the PAC-10 yet they slipped up against Oregon State.
Would you say the same if, say, Louisiana-Monroe ran the table in the Sun Belt?
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, undeated Hawaii surely deserved to have been in the BCS championship instead of two-loss LSU.
about 1 month ago
To keep a team focused and winning for 12 straight games is an accomplishment that has to be recognized. USC obviously wasn't prepared against Oregon State, if they were they wouldn't have lost. BTW this arguement wouldn't even be created if there was a playoff. And yes if Louisana-Monroe went undefeated, then they should at least be recognized for what they were able to do.
about 1 month ago
I'd love to see Boise State and Ohio State play. That would be a good one! No one can take the Bronco's lightly. The QB is excellent, and these boys believe the can win.
from about 1 month ago
How about a Ball State vs. Ohio State? They are undefeated as well and their QB is better than Boise State's.
from about 1 month ago
I'm flagging that comment as offensive!!! :)
from about 1 month ago
I am assuming you don't agree? You got to admit the Ball State QB is very good.
from about 1 month ago
Doug, just kidding. Both teams have excellent QB's and have had great seasons. Boise State can play with the big boys - ask Oklahoma and Oregon. The thing I like about Kellen Moore is that he is a freshman. 3 more years!
about 1 month ago
It has to be Ohio State. They will give the Fiesta Bowl much higher ratings and they will match up with Texas much better.
about 1 month ago
I dont think many of you realize how good BSU is, lets see Oregon beat Oregon State, Oregon State beat USC, and BSU beat Oregon for starters. Longest winning streak in college football which sadly ended last season. 65-2 record at home since being in the WAC. Allowing only 12.2 ppg this season. Even if BSU wanted a tougher season it doesnt mean they would get it. All schools belonging to a conference have to agree on allowing a new school in. If stanford voted against Texas then no way would they let BSU into the PAC 10.
from about 1 month ago
Good points Jeremy. That is the problem you start comparing schools that play in the "Tier 2" conferences to the ones in the big 6 conferences. The schedules are so different you can't directly compare them. Fresno's State's "We'll play anyone, anywhere" is about the approach Boise State should take if it really wants to be in consideration for the national championships.
If they get into a BCS bowl this year and perform like they did in the last one, they shouldn't have any problem getting really good teams onto their schedule. As long as they are willing to hit the road to play those games.
about 1 month ago
I have to agree with Ken Gordon (Columbus Dispatch columnist): Texas' defense will obliterate Ohio State's already shaky offensive line if those two end up playing each other in the Fiesta. I'd almost rather play an SEC team (never thought I'd be saying that...) in the Sugar Bowl (Alabama, assuming they lose to Florida) or Capitol One (Georgia) since the 2008 Buckeyes match up fairly well against both, at least on paper.
Great writeup, Doug!
from about 1 month ago
I agree. I'll take Georgia any day over having to go head to head with OK or TX.
Thanks for the kudos.
about 1 month ago
I think the past wins is a moot point (other than the TV rating aspect). These are different teams in different seasons from different conferences (one a BCS and one a non-BCS). BCS conferences are guaranteed a bowl game (no matter how good their conference is) non-BCS schools have to work to get there (work meaning pretty much going undefeated and beating up on opponents). If BSU were in a BCS conference this would be a completely different argument, but as is, the system negates any previous "BCS experience" argument.
from about 1 month ago
I think BSU has done everything it possibly can this year. I just am not sure if they scheduled tough enough out of conference opponents to make their case. If they did this in the MWC instead of the WAC I would say they would be in for sure.
about 1 month ago
Here is the most important fact. The BCS is a business in its own with business agreements with the six BCS conferences. Since the WAC isn't in that BCS agreement, it's not Boise State -vs- Ohio State. It's the WAC -vs- the BIG TEN. The BIG TEN has the business agreement with the BCS. There's your knockout punch. As a Buckeye fan, I hope Boise State goes to the BCS, and here's why. Any little thing to take money out of the BIG TEN's pockets will anger them, and that's a step closer to a playoff system, which as fans, we deserve.
from about 1 month ago
Actually the BCS rules include all the conferences in "Bowl Subdivision". I'm not sure that means they have an agreement per se with the WAC, but the WAC's inclusion is specifically lined out in the rules.
As a Buckeye fan, I kind of hope Boise gets it so we can go play Georgia instead of Oklahoma.
about 1 month ago
I think its a bunch of crap that the BCS Committee can just pick whoever the .... they want to. I think Boise State should have a chance a playing some BCS teams. They have sure earned it. I bet they would beat Ohio any day.
from about 1 month ago
I agree with you that it is BS that the committee gets to pick whomever they think will make them the most money.
In my opinion, if Boise wants to secure a slot in a BCS game they need to hit the road and play some big boys. Teams like Ohio State just aren't going to go to Boise to play on that goofy blue turf in a stadium that only seats less than a third of their home stadium. That is just the facts. They need to either get on the Fresno State "Play anybody, anywhere" plan or make a conference switch. Or, ha ha ha, hope for a playoff. We wish, right?
On your last comment, that is the big question. How do you compare an undefeated mid-major to a team like Ohio State who has two losses (to #1 and #3 at the time)? You can argue that one all night in a bar and nobody would be wrong. They need to find a way to make those games happen!
Thanks for the comments.
about 1 month ago
Again, if the Boise State fans want to be mad a the BCS, be mad that due to the "automatic bid" rule a 4 loss team and 2 loss team with a strength of schedule much lower than Ohio State got in because of them. By the way, if they would have played and won just won key game against a key team they'd be there right now, not the bucks. It's not the BCS' fault you scheduled a relatively easy non-conference schedule.
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